Evaluating Freshwater Biodiversity Decline and Conservation Priorities in Pond Ecosystems Under Land Use and Climate Change

The ongoing global loss of biodiversity, particularly in freshwater ecosystems, is a growing concern. This decline is caused by several factors, including agricultural practices, urbanization, habitat fragmentation, climate change, and pollution. These factors are likely to persist and potentially worsen, raising serious concerns about biodiversity loss and the potential extinction of species in freshwater environments. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the influence of land use and climate change on pond biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (ES) at both local and continental (Europe-wide) levels. We employed a novel integrative modeling approach to simulate multiple biodiversity and ES metrics under various climate and land use change scenarios. To evaluate water-related ES, we used Total Nitrogen (TN), Chlorophyll-a, and the fluxes of Methane (CH4) and Carbon dioxide (CO2) as the primary metrics. For biodiversity, we used the richness of amphibians, macroinvertebrates, fish species, macrophytes, and zooplankton as the key metrics due to their sensitivity to environmental changes. Our results reveal that the effects of climate and land use change scenarios on biodiversity and ES are complex and varied, leading to diverse outcomes. Our findings include priority intervention maps that pinpoint regions where ponds and their surrounding landscapes face the greatest threats to biodiversity and ES provision. These maps highlight the urgent need for immediate conservation actions to protect these vital ecosystems. The results of this study can guide the strategic allocation of resources towards effective pond management strategies that support climate mitigation and biodiversity preservation.