Investigating spatial variations in access to childcare provision using network-based Geographic Information System models

A ‘flagship’ policy outlined in the current Welsh Government’s Programme
for Government (2016) aims to provide 30 hours of free early education
and childcare per week to the working parents of three and four-year-olds.
However, in common with many other countries, there is currently a lack of
detail regarding existing levels of childcare provision that can act as a
benchmark with which to examine the impacts of this policy. This paper
addresses an urgent need to understand current levels of provision at
detailed geographical scales so as to provide an accurate picture of early
childhood education and care across Wales. By drawing on Geographical
Information Systems (GIS) network models we compare the spatial
distribution of providers with that of potential demand arising from those
population groups targeted in the childcare offer. These provide a simple to
understand supply-to-demand ratio that overcome the limitations of ratios
derived for arbitrary administrative boundaries. The types of map-based
outputs that emanate from such an approach are demonstrated to provide
more insights into spatial patterns of accessibility to current levels of
childcare provision that have guided the choice of pilot studies that will
inform the roll out of the full childcare offer by the Welsh Government in
2020.