Limited Niche Change After Dispersal From Africa by Leopards (Panthera pardus) Hundreds of Thousands of Years Ago

ABSTRACT Aim The leopard (Panthera pardus) is a generalist species inhabiting Africa and Asia, reflecting dispersal from an ancestral African range. When dispersal events occur, they can entail ecological differentiation and local adaptation. This study compares the bioclimatic niches of African and Asian leopard subspecies, to investigate whether they retained their ancestral ecology during dispersal from Africa, or adapted to novel conditions and shifted niche. Location Africa and Eurasia. Methods We assembled a database of leopard presences from public resources and associated them with bioclimatic variables to identify which are relevant in predicting the species' distribution. We constructed a species distribution model and compared distributions predicted from models based on presences from all subspecies, versus models built only using African leopard records. Finally, we used multivariate analysis to visualise the niche occupied by each subspecies in climate space, and calculated overlaps to assess ecological differentiation. Results The species distribution model trained only on African occurrences predicted most of the Asian range, but not the extension into more extreme environments such as the colder areas inhabited by several Northern Asian subspecies, and seasonal and rugged areas inhabited by Persian leopards. Niche overlaps suggest that Asian subspecies mostly retained their ancestral niche, but in some cases started to use climatic conditions that are not found in Africa. The Persian leopard is the only subspecies for which this expansion represents most of its current niche. Main Conclusions Despite some expansion into high altitude, seasonal environments in Northern Asian populations, the results suggest generally limited adaptation to novel climates after dispersal from Africa and little ecological differentiation among Asian leopard populations. This finding complements recent genetic studies that suggest limited genetic differentiation among Asian leopards. Resolving the relationships between taxonomy and biological differentiation is important due to its relevance for the conservation of the species.