On the M4.0 forecasting competition: Can you tell a 4.0 earthquake from a 3.0?

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos; D.D. Thomakos; Illias Katsagounos; Waleed Alghassab

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.023

On the M4.0 forecasting competition: Can you tell a 4.0 earthquake from a 3.0?

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
, D.D. Thomakos
, Illias Katsagounos
, Waleed Alghassab

The Albert Gubay Business School

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Twenty years on from the publication of the results of the well-celebrated M3 competition, and right about the time we got used to the idea that there will be no more M-type competitions, the M4 competition came in 2019. A 4.0 earthquake is 10 times ‘stronger’ than a 3.0, and that was what M4.0 was aspiring to; mission accomplished?

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	203-205
Journal	International Journal of Forecasting
Volume	36
Issue number	1
Early online date	3 Sept 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.023
Publication status	Published - Mar 2020

Keywords

M4 competition
Hybrid Method
Combination
Benchmark
Intermittence

Access to Document

10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.023

2019 M4.0 forecasting competitionAccepted author manuscript, 380 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Enabling effective and fast decision-making in organisations: forecasting with the Theta Method [REF2021]
Nikolopoulos, K. (Participant)
Impact: Economic

Cite this

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title = "On the M4.0 forecasting competition: Can you tell a 4.0 earthquake from a 3.0?",

abstract = "Twenty years on from the publication of the results of the well-celebrated M3 competition, and right about the time we got used to the idea that there will be no more M-type competitions, the M4 competition came in 2019. A 4.0 earthquake is 10 times {\textquoteleft}stronger{\textquoteright} than a 3.0, and that was what M4.0 was aspiring to; mission accomplished? ",

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AU - Alghassab, Waleed

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KW - Combination

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On the M4.0 forecasting competition: Can you tell a 4.0 earthquake from a 3.0?

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

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Impacts

Enabling effective and fast decision-making in organisations: forecasting with the Theta Method [REF2021]

Cite this