Secular Changes in Postfracture Outcomes Over 2 Decades in Australia: A Time-Trend Comparison of Excess Postfracture Mortality in Two Birth Controls Over Two Decades

CONTEXT: Hip fracture incidence has been declining and life expectancy improving. However, trends of postfracture outcomes are unknown.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to compare the refracture risk and excess mortality after osteoporotic fracture between two birth cohorts, over 2 decades.

DESIGN: Prospective birth cohorts were followed up over 2 decades (1989-2004 and 2000-2014).

SETTING: The study was conducted in community-dwelling participants in Dubbo, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS: Women and men aged 60-80 years, participating in Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study 1 (DOES 1; born before 1930) and Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study 2 (DOES 2; born after 1930) participated in the study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Age-standardized fracture and mortality over two time intervals: (1989-2004 [DOES 1] and 2000-2014 [DOES 2]) were measured.

RESULTS: The DOES 2 cohort had higher body mass index and bone mineral density and lower initial fracture rate than DOES 1, but similar refracture rates [age-standardized refracture rates per 1000 person-years: women: 53 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42-63) and 51 (95% CI 41-60) and men: 53 (95% CI 38-69) and 55 (95% CI 40-71) for DOES 2 and DOES 1, respectively). Absolute postfracture mortality rates declined in DOES 2 compared with DOES 1, mirroring the improvement in general-population life expectancy. However, when compared with period-specific general-population mortality, there was a similar 2.1- to 2.6-fold increased mortality risk after a fracture in both cohorts (age-adjusted standardized mortality ratio, women: 2.05 [95% CI 1.43-2.83] and 2.43 [95% CI 1.95-2.99] and men: 2.56 [95% CI 1.78-3.58] and 2.48 [95% CI 1.87-3.22] for DOES 2 and DOES 1, respectively).

CONCLUSION: Over the 2 decades, despite the decline in the prevalence of fracture risk factors, general-population mortality, and initial fracture incidence, there was no improvement in postfracture outcomes. Refracture rates were similar and fracture-associated mortality was 2-fold higher than expected. These data indicate that the low postfracture treatment rates are still a major problem.