Site Specific Relationships between COVID-19 Cases and SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Wastewater Treatment Plant Influent

Stephen F Fitzgerald, Gianluigi Rossi, Alison S Low, Sean P McAteer, Brian O'Keefe, David Findlay, Graeme J Cameron, Peter Pollard, Peter T R Singleton, George Ponton, Andrew C Singer, Kata Farkas, Davey L. Jones, David W Graham, Marcos Quintela-Baluja, Christine Tait-Burkard, David L Gally, Rowland Kao, Alexander Corbishley

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) has become an important tool during the COVID-19 pandemic, however the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater treatment plant influent (WWTP) and cases in the community is not well-defined. We report here the development of a national WBE program across 28 WWTPs serving 50% of the population of Scotland, including large conurbations, as well as low-density rural and remote island communities. For each WWTP catchment area, we quantified spatial and temporal relationships between SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and COVID-19 cases. Daily WWTP SARS-CoV-2 influent viral RNA load, calculated using daily influent flow rates, had the strongest correlation (ρ > 0.9) with COVID-19 cases within a catchment. As the incidence of COVID-19 cases within a community increased, a linear relationship emerged between cases and influent viral RNA load. There were significant differences between WWTPs in their capacity to predict case numbers based on influent viral RNA load, with the limit of detection ranging from 25 cases for larger plants to a single case in smaller plants. SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA load can be used to predict the number of cases detected in the WWTP catchment area, with a clear statistically significant relationship observed above site-specific case thresholds.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)15276-15286
Number of pages11
JournalEnvironmental Science and Technology
Volume55
Issue number22
Early online date5 Nov 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Nov 2021

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Humans
  • Pandemics
  • RNA, Viral
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Viral Load
  • Waste Water
  • Water Purification

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