The demographic transition and stagnation in countries vulnerable to climate change

Climate change, environmental degradation, and high population growth can trap Sub-Saharan Africa in prolonged economic stagnation. We develop a novel theoretical framework showing how climate-induced resource depletion increases women's time spent collecting essentials like water and firewood, reducing investment in girls' education. This perpetuates gender inequality in education and income, slowing fertility decline and reinforcing population growth. A larger population further degrades resources, creating a feedback loop of stagnation. Empirical analysis of 44 African countries (1960 - 2017) supports these findings, revealing adverse climate effects on local resources and education gaps. Addressing these interconnected challenges is critical to breaking the stagnation cycle and fostering sustainable development.