Time to stop monkeying around? Climate change impacts on the biogeography of Callitrichidae

Climate change impacts on the biogeography of South-Central American monkeys are potentially significant but remain relatively unexplored. We aim to predict the effects of climate change on future distributions of Callitrichidae (marmosets and tamarins). Our study species are black-faced lion tamarin (Leontopithecus caissara), cotton-headed tamarin (Saguinus oedipus), pied tamarin (Saguinus bicolor), golden-lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia), black-handed tamarin (Saguinus niger) and Goeldi’s monkey (Callimico goeldi). These monkeys are increasingly affected by anthropogenic activity and are all listed on the IUCN Red List as Vulnerable, Endangered or Critically Endangered. We use MaxENT and ArcGIS to produce species distribution models of current and future distributions using three General Circulation Models under two representative concentration pathways predicting smaller and larger degrees of warming respectively for 2050 and 2070. Our models performed well, with area under the curve scores ≥0.924 and temperature and precipitation variables being important contributors to all species’ models. Four of our six species were predicted substantial habitat losses (>25%) under at least half our scenarios. Saguinus niger is predicted to be most at risk and Leontopithecus rosalia the least, and the degree of risk varies with species, model, year and representative concentration pathway – there is no scenario that is uniformly positive or negative. Our method also allows us to identify potential areas of high conservation priority, where these at-risk species could survive even under more severe climate change. The results thus form a foundation on which future Callitrichid conservationists can build.