Hydrological modelling is a modelling tool widely used for the investigation of understanding the implications of climate change on flow regimes. The model allows for understanding of how hydropower generation can be assessed as part of the future of renewable energy. Outcomes of investigations of hydropower potential allow arguments to be made for further investment into
micro and small-scale hydropower schemes.
This study utilised a combined methodology comprising a conceptual hydrological model, EXPHydro, with ArcMap for spatial analysis. The study assessed the ability of EXP-Hydro to simulate streamflow in seven catchments in Wales for the years 2040-2080. UKCP18 data was utilised with the scenario of choice being RCP8.5.
The aim of this investigation was to assess the model performance of EXP-Hydro using a known criterion in the field of hydrological modelling, Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), to validate the model. The results of this investigation were below expectations. The KGE values ranged from 0.31 to 0.48 for all seven catchments. This raises the question of how the method could be improved and /or how data handling errors could have been prevented, both of which are discussed.
A secondary aim of the research involved calculating the hydropower potential of the seven
catchments. 74 new locations for hydropower were discovered, ranging from 5 kW to 1 MW