The Role of Climate Conditions on Arctic Tern Population Dynamics

Electronic versions

Documents

  • Natalie Robinson

    Research areas

  • Arctic tern, Foraging, Productivity, Provisioning, Adult survival, Breeding condition, Migration, Weather, Climate change, Seabird ecology, Climate variability, MScRes

Abstract

Arctic terns have been identified as a species that could be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, due to their dependance on global wind systems and multiple areas of marine productivity to support all stages of their life cycle. Despite having knowledge of key feeding areas and conditions that can affect arctic tern foraging, the anticipated effects of climate change on global populations are still uncertain due to variation in pressures faced by different tern colonies, but also the potential ability of this species to adapt through flying long distances and covering large ranges. This study investigated the potential links between climate conditions during the breeding and non-breeding seasons and their effects on demographics of arctic terns on The Skerries, Anglesey, the UK’s largest arctic tern colony. Results from a short-term provisioning study and analysis of long-term data on adult survival and productivity were used to assess vulnerabilities of this species to climate variation at different stages of their annual life cycle. Wave height was found to limit chick provisioning during the breeding season when it exceeded an optimal range, which in the future could contribute to reduced productivity in years where colonies experience prolonged episodes or frequent days of high waves during the peak chick rearing period. No patterns were observed with adult survival and climate indices across all periods which could suggest tern survival is not currently affected by annual variation in climate conditions, although some limitations with the ringing data were identified during analysis which could be improved upon in future tag deployments and through a longer dataset. Also, a non-significant but distinct non-linear relationship was identified between NAO in the months immediately prior to the breeding season and subsequent chick productivity that year, suggesting pre-breeding climate conditions could be an important factor in determining colony breeding success and warrants further targeted study. This study highlights the complexities of interactions between animals and environmental conditions in highly migratory species, but that collection and analysis of long-term datasets can offer insights into the main processes driving population-level processes.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
Supervisors/Advisors
Award date9 Aug 2024