A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning
Allbwn ymchwil: Cyfraniad at gyfnodolyn › Erthygl › adolygiad gan gymheiriaid
Fersiynau electronig
Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)
An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.
Iaith wreiddiol | Saesneg |
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Tudalennau (o-i) | 311-321 |
Cyfnodolyn | International Journal of Forecasting |
Cyfrol | 29 |
Rhif y cyfnodolyn | 2 |
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs) | |
Statws | Cyhoeddwyd - 1 Ebr 2013 |