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  • Global Change Biology - 2022 - Curd - Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize

    Fersiwn derfynol wedi’i chyhoeddi, 9.75 MB, dogfen-PDF

Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)

  • Amelia Curd
    IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne
  • Mathieu Chevalier
    IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne
  • Mickael Vasquez
    IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne
  • Aurelien Boye
    IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne
  • Louise B. Firth
    University of Plymouth
  • Martin P. Marzloff
    IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne
  • Lucy M. Bricheno
    Scottish Marine Institute, Oban
  • Michael T. Burrows
  • Laura E. Bush
  • Celine Cordier
    IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne
  • Andrew J. Davies
    University of Rhode Island
  • Mattias Green
  • Stephen J. Hawkins
    University of Plymouth
  • Fernando P. Lima
    CIBIO, Portugal
  • Claudia Meneghesso
    CIBIO, Portugal
  • Nova Mieszkowska
    The Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, Plymouth
  • Rui Seabra
    CIBIO, Portugal
  • Stanislas F. Dubois
    IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne
Distributional shifts in species ranges provide critical evidence of ecological responses to climate change. Assessments of climate-driven changes typically focus on broad-scale range shifts (e.g. poleward or upward), with ecological consequences at regional and local scales commonly overlooked. While these changes are informative for species presenting continuous geographic ranges, many species have discontinuous distributions—both natural (e.g. mountain or coastal species) or human-induced (e.g. species inhabiting fragmented landscapes)—where within-range changes can be significant. Here, we use an ecosystem engineer species (Sabellaria alveolata) with a naturally fragmented distribution as a case study to assess climate-driven changes in within-range occupancy across its entire global distribution. To this end, we applied landscape ecology metrics to outputs from species distribution modelling (SDM) in a novel unified framework. SDM predicted a 27.5% overall increase in the area of potentially suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 by 2050, which taken in isolation would have led to the classification of the species as a climate change winner. SDM further revealed that the latitudinal range is predicted to shrink because of decreased habitat suitability in the equatorward part of the range, not compensated by a poleward expansion. The use of landscape ecology metrics provided additional insights by identifying regions that are predicted to become increasingly fragmented in the future, potentially increasing extirpation risk by jeopardising metapopulation dynamics. This increased range fragmentation could have dramatic consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Importantly, the proposed framework—which brings together SDM and landscape metrics—can be widely used to study currently overlooked climate-driven changes in species internal range structure, without requiring detailed empirical knowledge of the modelled species. This approach represents an important advancement beyond predictive envelope approaches and could reveal itself as paramount for managers whose spatial scale of action usually ranges from local to regional.

Allweddeiriau

Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Tudalennau (o-i)631-647
Nifer y tudalennau17
CyfnodolynGlobal Change Biology
Cyfrol29
Rhif y cyfnodolyn3
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar17 Tach 2022
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - 1 Chwef 2023
Gweld graff cysylltiadau