TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change drives rapid warming and increasing heatwaves of lakes

AU - Wang, Xiwen

AU - Shi, Kun

AU - Zhang, Yunlin

AU - Qin, Boqiang

AU - Zhang, Yibo

AU - Wang, Weijia

AU - Woolway, R Iestyn

AU - Piao, Shilong

AU - Jeppesen, Erik

N1 - Copyright © 2023 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PY - 2023/7/30

Y1 - 2023/7/30

N2 - Climate change could seriously threaten global lake ecosystems by warming lake surface water and increasing the occurrence of lake heatwaves. Yet, there are great uncertainties in quantifying lake temperature changes globally due to a lack of accurate large-scale model simulations. Here, we integrated satellite observations and a numerical model to improve lake temperature modeling and explore the multifaceted characteristics of trends in surface temperatures and lake heatwave occurrence in Chinese lakes from 1980 to 2100. Our model-data integration approach revealed that the lake surface waters have warmed at a rate of 0.11 °C 10a-1 during the period 1980-2021, being only half of the pure model-based estimate. Moreover, our analysis suggested that an asymmetric seasonal warming rate has led to a reduced temperature seasonality in eastern plain lakes but an amplified one in alpine lakes. The durations of lake heatwaves have also increased at a rate of 7.7 d 10a-1. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, lake surface temperature and lake heatwave duration were projected to increase by 2.2 °C and 197 d at the end of the 21st century, respectively. Such drastic changes would worsen the environmental conditions of lakes subjected to high and increasing anthropogenic pressures, posing great threats to aquatic biodiversity and human health.

AB - Climate change could seriously threaten global lake ecosystems by warming lake surface water and increasing the occurrence of lake heatwaves. Yet, there are great uncertainties in quantifying lake temperature changes globally due to a lack of accurate large-scale model simulations. Here, we integrated satellite observations and a numerical model to improve lake temperature modeling and explore the multifaceted characteristics of trends in surface temperatures and lake heatwave occurrence in Chinese lakes from 1980 to 2100. Our model-data integration approach revealed that the lake surface waters have warmed at a rate of 0.11 °C 10a-1 during the period 1980-2021, being only half of the pure model-based estimate. Moreover, our analysis suggested that an asymmetric seasonal warming rate has led to a reduced temperature seasonality in eastern plain lakes but an amplified one in alpine lakes. The durations of lake heatwaves have also increased at a rate of 7.7 d 10a-1. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, lake surface temperature and lake heatwave duration were projected to increase by 2.2 °C and 197 d at the end of the 21st century, respectively. Such drastic changes would worsen the environmental conditions of lakes subjected to high and increasing anthropogenic pressures, posing great threats to aquatic biodiversity and human health.

U2 - 10.1016/j.scib.2023.06.028

DO - 10.1016/j.scib.2023.06.028

M3 - Article

C2 - 37429775

VL - 68

SP - 1574

EP - 1584

JO - Science bulletin

JF - Science bulletin

SN - 2095-9273

IS - 14

ER -