TY - JOUR

T1 - Consistent concentrations of critically endangered Balearic shearwaters in UK waters revealed by at-sea surveys

AU - Phillips, Jessica

AU - Banks, Alex

AU - Bolton, Mark

AU - Brereton, Tom

AU - Cazenave, Pierre

AU - Gillies, Natasha

AU - Padget, Oliver

AU - van der Kooij, Jeroen

AU - Waggitt, James

AU - Guilford, Tim

N1 - © 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2021/2

Y1 - 2021/2

N2 - AimEurope's only globally critically endangered seabird, the Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus), is thought to have expanded its postbreeding range northwards into UK waters, though its at sea distribution there is not yet well understood. This study aims to identify environmental factors associated with the species’ presence, map the probability of presence of the species across the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea, and estimate the number of individuals in this area.LocationThe western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea.MethodsThis study analyses strip transect data collected between 2013 and 2017 from vessel-based surveys in the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea during the Balearic shearwater's postbreeding period. Using environmental data collected directly and from remote sensors both Generalized Additive Models and the Random Forest machine learning model were used to determine shearwater presence at different locations. Abundance was estimated separately using a density multiplication approach.ResultsBoth models indicated that oceanographic features were better predictors of shearwater presence than fish abundance. Seafloor aspect, sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, and maximum current speed were the most important predictors. The estimated number of Balearic shearwaters in the prediction area ranged from 652 birds in 2017 to 6,904 birds in 2014.Main conclusionsAreas with consistently high probabilities of shearwater presence were identified at the Celtic Sea front. Our estimates suggest that the study area in southwest Britain supports between 2% and 23% of the global population of Balearic shearwaters. Based on the timing of the surveys (mainly in October), it is probable that most of the sighted shearwaters were immatures. This study provides the most complete understanding of Balearic shearwater distribution in UK waters available to date, information that will help inform any future conservation actions concerning this endangered species.

AB - AimEurope's only globally critically endangered seabird, the Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus), is thought to have expanded its postbreeding range northwards into UK waters, though its at sea distribution there is not yet well understood. This study aims to identify environmental factors associated with the species’ presence, map the probability of presence of the species across the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea, and estimate the number of individuals in this area.LocationThe western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea.MethodsThis study analyses strip transect data collected between 2013 and 2017 from vessel-based surveys in the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea during the Balearic shearwater's postbreeding period. Using environmental data collected directly and from remote sensors both Generalized Additive Models and the Random Forest machine learning model were used to determine shearwater presence at different locations. Abundance was estimated separately using a density multiplication approach.ResultsBoth models indicated that oceanographic features were better predictors of shearwater presence than fish abundance. Seafloor aspect, sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, and maximum current speed were the most important predictors. The estimated number of Balearic shearwaters in the prediction area ranged from 652 birds in 2017 to 6,904 birds in 2014.Main conclusionsAreas with consistently high probabilities of shearwater presence were identified at the Celtic Sea front. Our estimates suggest that the study area in southwest Britain supports between 2% and 23% of the global population of Balearic shearwaters. Based on the timing of the surveys (mainly in October), it is probable that most of the sighted shearwaters were immatures. This study provides the most complete understanding of Balearic shearwater distribution in UK waters available to date, information that will help inform any future conservation actions concerning this endangered species.

KW - Balearic shearwater

KW - critically endangered

KW - distribution

KW - generalized additive model

KW - random forest

KW - seabird

U2 - 10.1002/ece3.7059

DO - 10.1002/ece3.7059

M3 - Article

C2 - 33613988

VL - 11

SP - 1544

EP - 1557

JO - Ecology and Evolution

JF - Ecology and Evolution

SN - 2045-7758

IS - 4

ER -