TY - JOUR

T1 - Do momentum and reversal strategies work in commodity futures? A comprehensive study

AU - Andrew Urquhart

AU - Zhang, Hanxiong

PY - 2020/10/15

Y1 - 2020/10/15

N2 - PurposeMotivated by the debate on the patterns and sources of commodity futures returns, this paper investigates the performance of three investment trading strategies, namely, the momentum strategy of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), the 52-week high momentum strategy of George and Hwang (2004) and the pairs trading strategy of Gatev et al. (2006) in the commodity futures market.Design/methodology/approachThe three strategies are those given by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), George and Hwang (2004) and Gatev et al. (2006), respectively.FindingsThe authors find that there is no significant reversal profit across 189 formation-holding windows for all the three strategies. However, there are statistical and economically significant momentum profits, and the profitability increases with the rising of formation-holding periods. Momentum returns are quite sensitive to market conditions but the crash of momentum returns is partly predictable. Return seasonality, risk and herding also provide partial explanation of the momentum profits.Originality/valueThe authors are the first to compare the performances of the pairs trading strategy of Gatev et al. (2006), the conventional momentum of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), and the 52-week high momentum of George and Hwang (2004) under 189 formation-holding windows. Also, the authors are the first to investigate the association between herding behaviour and momentum returns in the commodity futures market.

AB - PurposeMotivated by the debate on the patterns and sources of commodity futures returns, this paper investigates the performance of three investment trading strategies, namely, the momentum strategy of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), the 52-week high momentum strategy of George and Hwang (2004) and the pairs trading strategy of Gatev et al. (2006) in the commodity futures market.Design/methodology/approachThe three strategies are those given by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), George and Hwang (2004) and Gatev et al. (2006), respectively.FindingsThe authors find that there is no significant reversal profit across 189 formation-holding windows for all the three strategies. However, there are statistical and economically significant momentum profits, and the profitability increases with the rising of formation-holding periods. Momentum returns are quite sensitive to market conditions but the crash of momentum returns is partly predictable. Return seasonality, risk and herding also provide partial explanation of the momentum profits.Originality/valueThe authors are the first to compare the performances of the pairs trading strategy of Gatev et al. (2006), the conventional momentum of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), and the 52-week high momentum of George and Hwang (2004) under 189 formation-holding windows. Also, the authors are the first to investigate the association between herding behaviour and momentum returns in the commodity futures market.

U2 - 10.1108/RBF-05-2019-0067

DO - 10.1108/RBF-05-2019-0067

M3 - Article

JO - Review of Behavioural Finance

JF - Review of Behavioural Finance

SN - 1940-5979

ER -