TY - JOUR

T1 - Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

AU - La Fuente, Sofia

AU - Jennings, Eleanor

AU - Lenters, John D.

AU - Verburg, Piet

AU - Tan, Zeli

AU - Perroud, Marjorie

AU - Janssen, Annette B.G.

AU - Woolway, R. Iestyn

PY - 2024/3/1

Y1 - 2024/3/1

N2 - Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm-season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. We highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

AB - Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm-season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. We highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

KW - ISIMIP

KW - Uncertainty

KW - Inland waters

KW - Lake modelling

KW - Multi-model

U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130647

DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130647

M3 - Article

VL - 631

JO - Journal of Hydrology

JF - Journal of Hydrology

SN - 0022-1694

M1 - 130647

ER -