TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions

AU - Nikolopoulos, Kostas

AU - Punia, Sushil

AU - Schäfers, Andreas

AU - Tsinopoulos, Christos

AU - Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis

PY - 2021/4/1

Y1 - 2021/4/1

N2 - Policymakers during COVID-19 operate in uncharted territory and must make tough decisions. Operational Research - the ubiquitous ‘science of better’ - plays a vital role in supporting this decision-making process. To that end, using data from the USA, India, UK, Germany, and Singapore up to mid-April 2020, we provide predictive analytics tools for forecasting and planning during a pandemic. We forecast COVID-19 growth rates with statistical, epidemiological, machine- and deep-learning models, and a new hybrid forecasting method based on nearest neighbors and clustering. We further model and forecast the excess demand for products and services during the pandemic using auxiliary data (google trends) and simulating governmental decisions (lockdown). Our empirical results can immediately help policymakers and planners make better decisions during the ongoing and future pandemics.

AB - Policymakers during COVID-19 operate in uncharted territory and must make tough decisions. Operational Research - the ubiquitous ‘science of better’ - plays a vital role in supporting this decision-making process. To that end, using data from the USA, India, UK, Germany, and Singapore up to mid-April 2020, we provide predictive analytics tools for forecasting and planning during a pandemic. We forecast COVID-19 growth rates with statistical, epidemiological, machine- and deep-learning models, and a new hybrid forecasting method based on nearest neighbors and clustering. We further model and forecast the excess demand for products and services during the pandemic using auxiliary data (google trends) and simulating governmental decisions (lockdown). Our empirical results can immediately help policymakers and planners make better decisions during the ongoing and future pandemics.

U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.08.001

DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.08.001

M3 - Article

C2 - 32836717

VL - 290

SP - 99

EP - 115

JO - European Journal of Operational Research

JF - European Journal of Operational Research

SN - 0377-2217

IS - 1

ER -