Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change

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Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)

  • Stephen C. Maberly
    Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster
  • Ruth A. O'Donnell
    Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
  • R. Iestyn Woolway
    Dundalk Institute of Technology
  • Mark E. J. Cutler
    University of Dundee
  • Mengyi Gong
    Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
  • Ian D. Jones
    Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster
  • Christopher J. Merchant
    University of Reading
  • Claire A. Miller
    Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
  • Eirini Politi
    University of Dundee
  • E. Marian Scott
    Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
  • Stephen J. Thackeray
    Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster
  • Andrew N. Tyler
    University of Stirling
Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080–2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
CyfnodolynNature Communications
Cyfrol11
Rhif y cyfnodolyn1
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - 6 Maw 2020
Gweld graff cysylltiadau