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Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)

  • Cathy Qi
    Swansea University Medical School
  • Tim Osborne
    Swansea University
  • Rowena Bailey
    Swansea University
  • Alison Cooper
    School of Healthcare Sciences, Cardiff University
  • Joe Hollinghurst
    Swansea University
  • Ashley Akbari
    Swansea University
  • Ruth Crowder
    Welsh Government
  • Holly Peters
    School of Healthcare Sciences, Cardiff University
  • Rebecca-Jane Law
    Welsh Government
  • Ruth Lewis
  • Deb Smith
    School of Healthcare Sciences, Cardiff University
  • Mark Walker
    Welsh Government
  • Adrian Edwards
    School of Healthcare Sciences, Cardiff University
  • Ronan Lyons
    Swansea University
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has directly and indirectly had an impact on health service provision owing to surges and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood.

Aim To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term conditions.

Design and setting This was an observational retrospective population data linkage study on the population of Wales using primary and secondary care data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank.

Method Monthly rates of new diagnosis between 2000 and 2021 are presented for each long-term condition. Incidence rates post-2020 were compared with expected rates predicted using time series modelling of pre-2020 trends. The proportion of annual incidence is presented by sociodemographic factors: age, sex, social deprivation, ethnicity, frailty, and learning disability.

Results A total of 5 476 012 diagnoses from 2 257 992 individuals are included. Incidence rates from 2020 to 2021 were lower than mean expected rates across all conditions. The largest relative deficit in incidence was in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease corresponding to 343 (95% confidence interval = 230 to 456) undiagnosed patients per 100 000 population, followed by depression, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, anxiety disorders, and asthma. A GP practice of 10 000 patients might have over 400 undiagnosed long-term conditions. No notable differences between sociodemographic profiles of post- and pre-2020 incidences were observed.

Conclusion There is a potential backlog of undiagnosed patients with multiple long-term conditions. Resources are required to tackle anticipated workload as part of COVID-19 recovery, particularly in primary care.
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Tudalennau (o-i)e332-e339
CyfnodolynBritish Journal of General Practice
Cyfrol73
Rhif y cyfnodolyn730
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar6 Maw 2023
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - Mai 2023

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