Lake Water Temperature Modeling in an Era of Climate Change: Data Sources, Models, and Future Prospects

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  • S. Piccolroaz
    University of Trento, Italy
  • S. Zhu
    Yangzhou University
  • R. Ladwig
    University of Wisconsin
  • L. Carrea
    University of Reading
  • S. Oliver
    US Geological Survey
  • A. P. Piotrowski
    Polish Academy of Sciences
  • M. Ptak
    Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan
  • R. Shinohara
    National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
  • M. Sojka
    University of Life Sciences, Poznan
  • R. I. Woolway
  • D. Z. Zhu
    University of Alberta
Abstract Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process-based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process-based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.

Allweddeiriau

Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Rhif yr erthygle2023RG000816
CyfnodolynReviews of Geophysics
Cyfrol62
Rhif y cyfnodolyn1
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar11 Chwef 2024
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - Maw 2024

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