Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement

Allbwn ymchwil: Cyfraniad at gyfnodolynErthygladolygiad gan gymheiriaid

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Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. / van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Tamelander, Jerker et al.
Yn: Scientific Reports, Cyfrol 6, 39666, 12.2016.

Allbwn ymchwil: Cyfraniad at gyfnodolynErthygladolygiad gan gymheiriaid

HarvardHarvard

van Hooidonk, R, Maynard, JA, Tamelander, J, Gove, JM, Ahmadia, GN, Raymundo, L, Williams, G, Heron, SF & Planes, S 2016, 'Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement', Scientific Reports, cyfrol. 6, 39666. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39666

APA

van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., Tamelander, J., Gove, J. M., Ahmadia, G. N., Raymundo, L., Williams, G., Heron, S. F., & Planes, S. (2016). Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. Scientific Reports, 6, Erthygl 39666. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39666

CBE

van Hooidonk R, Maynard JA, Tamelander J, Gove JM, Ahmadia GN, Raymundo L, Williams G, Heron SF, Planes S. 2016. Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. Scientific Reports. 6:Article 39666. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39666

MLA

VancouverVancouver

van Hooidonk R, Maynard JA, Tamelander J, Gove JM, Ahmadia GN, Raymundo L et al. Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. Scientific Reports. 2016 Rhag;6:39666. Epub 2016 Rhag 21. doi: 10.1038/srep39666

Author

van Hooidonk, Ruben ; Maynard, Jeffrey A. ; Tamelander, Jerker et al. / Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. Yn: Scientific Reports. 2016 ; Cyfrol 6.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement

AU - van Hooidonk, Ruben

AU - Maynard, Jeffrey A.

AU - Tamelander, Jerker

AU - Gove, Jamison M.

AU - Ahmadia, Gabby N.

AU - Raymundo, Laurie

AU - Williams, Gareth

AU - Heron, Scott F.

AU - Planes, Serge

PY - 2016/12

Y1 - 2016/12

N2 - Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

AB - Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

U2 - 10.1038/srep39666

DO - 10.1038/srep39666

M3 - Article

VL - 6

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

SN - 2045-2322

M1 - 39666

ER -