TY - JOUR

T1 - Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes

AU - Sharma, Sapna

AU - Richardson, David C.

AU - Woolway, R. Iestyn

AU - Imrit, M. Arshad

AU - Bouffard, Damien

AU - Blagrave, Kevin

AU - Daly, Julia

AU - Filazzola, Alessandro

AU - Granin, Nikolay

AU - Korhonen, Johanna

AU - Magnuson, John

AU - Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz

AU - Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro S.

AU - Perry, William

AU - Robertson, Dale M.

AU - Rudstam, Lars G.

AU - Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

AU - Yao, Huaxia

PY - 2021/10/1

Y1 - 2021/10/1

N2 - Long-term lake ice phenological records from around the Northern Hemisphere provide unique sensitive indicators of climatic variations, even prior to the existence of physical meteorological measurement stations. Here, we updated ice phenology records for 60 lakes with time-series ranging from 107–204 years to provide the first re-assessment of Northern Hemispheric ice trends since 2004 by adding 15 additional years of ice phenology records and 40 lakes to our study. We found that, on average, ice-on was 11.0 days later, ice-off was 6.8 days earlier, and ice duration was 17.0 days shorter per century over the entire record for each lake. Trends in ice-on and ice duration were six times faster in the last 25-year period (1992–2016) than previous quarter centuries. More extreme events in recent decades, including late ice-on, early ice-off, shorter periods of ice cover, or no ice cover at all, contribute to the increasing rate of lake ice loss. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit increases in air temperature and abate losses in lake ice cover that would subsequently limit ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic consequences, such as increased evaporation rates, warmer water temperatures, degraded water quality, and the formation of toxic algal blooms.

AB - Long-term lake ice phenological records from around the Northern Hemisphere provide unique sensitive indicators of climatic variations, even prior to the existence of physical meteorological measurement stations. Here, we updated ice phenology records for 60 lakes with time-series ranging from 107–204 years to provide the first re-assessment of Northern Hemispheric ice trends since 2004 by adding 15 additional years of ice phenology records and 40 lakes to our study. We found that, on average, ice-on was 11.0 days later, ice-off was 6.8 days earlier, and ice duration was 17.0 days shorter per century over the entire record for each lake. Trends in ice-on and ice duration were six times faster in the last 25-year period (1992–2016) than previous quarter centuries. More extreme events in recent decades, including late ice-on, early ice-off, shorter periods of ice cover, or no ice cover at all, contribute to the increasing rate of lake ice loss. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit increases in air temperature and abate losses in lake ice cover that would subsequently limit ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic consequences, such as increased evaporation rates, warmer water temperatures, degraded water quality, and the formation of toxic algal blooms.

KW - lake ice

KW - climate change

KW - ice phenology

KW - extreme events

KW - winter limnology

U2 - 10.1029/2021JG006348

DO - 10.1029/2021JG006348

M3 - Article

VL - 126

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

SN - 2169-8961

IS - 10

M1 - e2021JG006348

ER -