TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling potential range expansion of an underutilised food security crop in Sub-Saharan Africa

AU - Koch, O.

AU - Mengesha, W. A.

AU - Pironon, S.

AU - Pagella, T.

AU - Ondo, I

AU - Rosa, I

AU - Wilkin, P.

AU - Borrell, J. S.

PY - 2022/1

Y1 - 2022/1

N2 - Despite substantial growth in global agricultural production, food and nutritional insecurity is rising in Sub-Saharan Africa. Identification of underutilised indigenous crops with useful food security traits may provide part of the solution. Enset (Ensete ventricosum) is a perennial banana relative with cultivation restricted to southwestern Ethiopia, where high productivity and harvest flexibility enables it to provide a starch staple for ~20 million people. An extensive wild distribution suggests that a much larger region may be climatically suitable for cultivation. Here we use ensemble ecological niche modelling to predict the potential range for enset cultivation within southern and eastern Africa. We find contemporary bioclimatic suitability for a 12-fold range expansion, equating to 21.9% of crop land and 28.4% of the population in the region. Integration of crop wild relative diversity, which has broader climate tolerance, could enable a 19-fold expansion, particularly to dryer and warmer regions. Whilst climate change may cause a 37% – 52% reduction in potential range by 2070, large centres of suitability remain in the Ethiopian Highlands, Lake Victoria region and the Drakensberg Range. We combine our bioclimatic assessment with socioeconomic data to identify priority areas with high population density, seasonal food deficits and predominantly small-scale subsistence agriculture, where integrating enset may be particularly feasible and deliver climate resilience. When incorporating the genetic potential of wild populations, enset cultivation might prove feasible for an additional 87.2 - 111.5 million people, 27.7 – 33 million of which are in Ethiopia outside of enset’s current cultivation range. Finally, we consider explanations why enset cultivation has not expanded historically, and ethical implications of expanding previously underutilised species.

AB - Despite substantial growth in global agricultural production, food and nutritional insecurity is rising in Sub-Saharan Africa. Identification of underutilised indigenous crops with useful food security traits may provide part of the solution. Enset (Ensete ventricosum) is a perennial banana relative with cultivation restricted to southwestern Ethiopia, where high productivity and harvest flexibility enables it to provide a starch staple for ~20 million people. An extensive wild distribution suggests that a much larger region may be climatically suitable for cultivation. Here we use ensemble ecological niche modelling to predict the potential range for enset cultivation within southern and eastern Africa. We find contemporary bioclimatic suitability for a 12-fold range expansion, equating to 21.9% of crop land and 28.4% of the population in the region. Integration of crop wild relative diversity, which has broader climate tolerance, could enable a 19-fold expansion, particularly to dryer and warmer regions. Whilst climate change may cause a 37% – 52% reduction in potential range by 2070, large centres of suitability remain in the Ethiopian Highlands, Lake Victoria region and the Drakensberg Range. We combine our bioclimatic assessment with socioeconomic data to identify priority areas with high population density, seasonal food deficits and predominantly small-scale subsistence agriculture, where integrating enset may be particularly feasible and deliver climate resilience. When incorporating the genetic potential of wild populations, enset cultivation might prove feasible for an additional 87.2 - 111.5 million people, 27.7 – 33 million of which are in Ethiopia outside of enset’s current cultivation range. Finally, we consider explanations why enset cultivation has not expanded historically, and ethical implications of expanding previously underutilised species.

KW - agriculture

KW - ecological niche modelling

KW - enset

KW - ethiopia

KW - climate change

KW - ecological intensification

KW - crop wild relatives

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac40b2

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac40b2

M3 - Article

VL - 17

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 1

M1 - 014022

ER -