Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

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Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)

  • R. Iestyn Woolway
    Dundalk Institute of Technology
  • Sapna Sharma
    York University, Toronto
  • Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer
    Uppsala University
  • Andrey Debolskiy
    Lomonosov Moscow State University
  • Malgorzata Golub
    Uppsala University
  • Daniel Mercado-Bettin
    Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona
  • Marjorie Perroud
    University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
  • Victor Stepanenko
    Lomonosov Moscow State University
  • Zeli Tan
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • Luke Grant
    Vrije Universiteit Brussels
  • Robert Ladwig
    University of Wisconsin-Madison
  • Jorrit Mesman
    Uppsala University
  • Tadhg N. Moore
    Dundalk Institute of Technology
  • Tom Shatwell
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Magdeburg, Germany
  • Inne Vanderkelen
    Vrije Universiteit Brussels
  • Jay A. Austin
    University of Minnesota, USA
  • Curtis L. DeGasperi
    King County Water and Land Resources Division, Seattle
  • Martin Dokulil
    University of Innsbruck
  • Sofia La Fuente
    Dundalk Institute of Technology
  • Eleanor B. Mackay
    Lancaster Environment Centre
  • S. Geoffrey Schladow
    University of California, Davis
  • Shohei Watanabe
    University of California, Davis
  • Rafael Marce
    Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona
  • Don C. Pierson
    Uppsala University
  • Wim Thiery
    Vrije Universiteit Brussels
  • Eleanor Jennings
    Dundalk Institute of Technology
One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Rhif yr erthygl2318 (2021)
CyfnodolynNature Communications
Cyfrol12
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - 19 Ebr 2021

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