Technical analysis as a sentiment barometer and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Wenjie Ding
    Sun Yat-sen University
  • Khelifa Mazouz
    School of Healthcare Sciences, Cardiff University
  • Owain ap Gwilym
  • Qingwei Wang
    School of Healthcare Sciences, Cardiff University
This paper explores an unexamined sentiment channel through which technical analysis can add value. We use a spectrum of technical trading strategies to build a daily market sentiment indicator that is highly correlated with other commonly used sentiment measures. This technical-analysis-based sentiment indicator positively predicts near-term returns and is inversely related to long-term returns in the cross-section. Simple trading strategies based on this sentiment indicator yield substantial abnormal returns. These results are consistent with the explanation that lack of synchronization induces rational arbitrageurs to exploit the mispricing before it is corrected.

Allweddeiriau

Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Tudalennau (o-i)1617-1636
CyfnodolynQuantitative Finance
Cyfrol23
Rhif y cyfnodolyn11
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar1 Medi 2023
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - Tach 2023
Gweld graff cysylltiadau