The Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings on Voters’ Preferences
Allbwn ymchwil: Cyfraniad at gyfnodolyn › Erthygl › adolygiad gan gymheiriaid
Fersiynau electronig
Dogfennau
- JBF- Accepted- Manuscript- June 2023
Llawysgrif awdur wedi’i dderbyn, 2.18 MB, dogfen-PDF
Trwydded: CC BY-NC-ND Dangos trwydded
Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)
We investigate the political power of credit rating agencies by building a theoretical model that illustrates how heterogeneous voters change their political preferences after receiving credit signals which infer the quality of their governments. We empirically test this hypothesis using a rich dataset of daily sovereign ratings, outlook and watch signals assigned by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch to EU countries from 2000 to 2017, along with a unique dataset measuring public support for governments. We find that negative rating signals lead to a significant decrease in government support, therefore influencing the electoral prospects of political parties. Both sociotropic and egocentric voters’ preferences are affected by sovereign ratings. Our results are confirmed across a battery of robustness tests and various modelling approaches, including fixed effects and difference in differences models and propensity score matching. Our findings offer wide-ranging implications for policy makers, political parties, governments, and the rating industry.
Iaith wreiddiol | Saesneg |
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Rhif yr erthygl | 106938 |
Cyfnodolyn | Journal of Banking and Finance |
Cyfrol | 154 |
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar | 19 Meh 2023 |
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs) | |
Statws | Cyhoeddwyd - Medi 2023 |