The Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings on Voters’ Preferences

Allbwn ymchwil: Cyfraniad at gyfnodolynErthygladolygiad gan gymheiriaid

Fersiynau electronig

Dogfennau

  • JBF- Accepted- Manuscript- June 2023

    Llawysgrif awdur wedi’i dderbyn, 2.18 MB, dogfen-PDF

    Embargo yn dod i ben: 19/12/24

    Trwydded: CC BY-NC-ND Dangos trwydded

Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)

  • Phuc Lam Thy Nguyen
    University of Management and Technology Ho Chi Minh City
  • Rasha Alsakka
  • Noemi Mantovan
    Department of Molecular and Clinical Pharmacology, University of Liverpool
We investigate the political power of credit rating agencies by building a theoretical model that illustrates how heterogeneous voters change their political preferences after receiving credit signals which infer the quality of their governments. We empirically test this hypothesis using a rich dataset of daily sovereign ratings, outlook and watch signals assigned by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch to EU countries from 2000 to 2017, along with a unique dataset measuring public support for governments. We find that negative rating signals lead to a significant decrease in government support, therefore influencing the electoral prospects of political parties. Both sociotropic and egocentric voters’ preferences are affected by sovereign ratings. Our results are confirmed across a battery of robustness tests and various modelling approaches, including fixed effects and difference in differences models and propensity score matching. Our findings offer wide-ranging implications for policy makers, political parties, governments, and the rating industry.
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Rhif yr erthygl106938
CyfnodolynJournal of Banking and Finance
Cyfrol154
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar19 Meh 2023
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - Medi 2023
Gweld graff cysylltiadau