The term structure of sovereign credit default swap and the cross-section of exchange rate predictability

Allbwn ymchwil: Cyfraniad at gyfnodolynErthygladolygiad gan gymheiriaid

Fersiynau electronig

Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)

We provide novel evidence on exchange rate predictability by using the term premia of the sovereign credit default swap (CDS). Using a sample of 29 countries, we find that the sovereign CDS term premia significantly predict the exchange rates out-of-sample. On average, a steeper CDS spread curve for a country predicts its currency appreciation against the U.S. dollar (USD). Empirically, although the sovereign CDS level mainly reflects global risk, the information in the term premia of the sovereign CDS spreads reveals country-specific risk. Notably, the predictive power of the term premia is robust after controlling for the sovereign CDS level and other conventional global macroeconomic and financial factors. Further analysis shows that the information in the sovereign CDS term premia is also helpful for forecasting international stock market returns.
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Tudalennau (o-i)445-458
CyfnodolynInternational Journal of Finance & Economics
Cyfrol26
Rhif y cyfnodolyn1
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - Rhag 2019
Cyhoeddwyd yn allanolIe
Gweld graff cysylltiadau