TY - JOUR

T1 - A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning

AU - Savio, N.D.

AU - Nikolopoulos, K.

PY - 2013/4/1

Y1 - 2013/4/1

N2 - An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.

AB - An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

M3 - Article

VL - 29

SP - 311

EP - 321

JO - International Journal of Forecasting

JF - International Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0169-2070

IS - 2

ER -