A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Standard Standard

A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning. / Savio, N.D.; Nikolopoulos, K.
In: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 29, No. 2, 01.04.2013, p. 311-321.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

HarvardHarvard

Savio, ND & Nikolopoulos, K 2013, 'A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning', International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 311-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

APA

Savio, N. D., & Nikolopoulos, K. (2013). A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), 311-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

CBE

Savio ND, Nikolopoulos K. 2013. A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning. International Journal of Forecasting. 29(2):311-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

MLA

Savio, N.D. and K. Nikolopoulos. "A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning". International Journal of Forecasting. 2013, 29(2). 311-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

VancouverVancouver

Savio ND, Nikolopoulos K. A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning. International Journal of Forecasting. 2013 Apr 1;29(2):311-321. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

Author

Savio, N.D. ; Nikolopoulos, K. / A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning. In: International Journal of Forecasting. 2013 ; Vol. 29, No. 2. pp. 311-321.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning

AU - Savio, N.D.

AU - Nikolopoulos, K.

PY - 2013/4/1

Y1 - 2013/4/1

N2 - An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.

AB - An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

M3 - Article

VL - 29

SP - 311

EP - 321

JO - International Journal of Forecasting

JF - International Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0169-2070

IS - 2

ER -