Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

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  • Luke Grant
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel
  • Inne Vanderkelen
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel
  • Lukas Gudmundsson
    Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich
  • Zeli Tan
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland
  • Marjorie Perroud
    University of Geneva
  • Victor M. Stepanenko
    Lomonosov Moscow State University
  • Andrey, V Debolskiy
    Lomonosov Moscow State University
  • Bram Droppers
    Wageningen University & Research
  • Annette B. G. Janssen
    Wageningen University & Research
  • R. Iestyn Woolway
    European Space Agency Climate Office, ECSAT
  • Margarita Choulga
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
  • Gianpaolo Balsamo
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
  • Georgiy Kirillin
    Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin
  • Jacob Schewe
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Fang Zhao
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Iliusi Vega del Valle
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Malgorzata Golub
    Uppsala University
  • Don Pierson
    Uppsala University
  • Rafael Marce
    Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona
  • Sonia, I Seneviratne
    Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich
  • Wim Thiery
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.
Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Geoscience
Volume14
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Oct 2021

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