Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal

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  • Line Cordes
  • Daniel Blumstein
    University of California, Los Angeles
  • Kenneth Armitage
    University of Kansas
  • Paul CaraDonna
    Chicago Botanic Gardens
  • Dylan Childs
    University of Sheffield
  • Brian Gerber
    University of Rhode Island
  • Julien Martin
    University of Ottawa
  • Madan Oli
    University of Florida
  • Arpat Ozgul
    University of Zürich
Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)18119-18126
Number of pages8
JournalPNAS
Volume117
Issue number30
Early online date6 Jul 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Jul 2020

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