Forecasting with a hybrid method utilizing data smoothing, a variation of the Theta method and shrinkage of seasonal factors
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- 2018 Forecasting with a hybrid method
Accepted author manuscript, 963 KB, PDF document
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DOI
In this paper, we discuss how extrapolation can be advanced by using some of the most successful elements and paradigms from the forecasting literature. We propose a new hybrid method that utilises: a) the decomposition approach of the Theta method, but instead of considering a linear trend we allow for nonlinear trends, b) rather than employing the extrapolation method on the raw data, we first apply smoothing to the data, and c) when seasonality is present, we employ the shrinkage approach to the derived indices instead of simply applying classical seasonal decomposition. We empirically evaluate the new proposition in the M3-Competition data with very promising results in terms of forecast accuracy.
Keywords
- Extrapolation, Theta model, Smoothing, Shrinkage, M3-competition
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 92-102 |
| Journal | International Journal of Production Economics |
| Volume | 209 |
| Early online date | 1 Feb 2018 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 2019 |
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