Research Portal

Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Standard Standard

Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter? / Rogers, R.; Coid, J.W.; Yang, M. et al.
In: International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, Vol. 14, No. 1, 31.03.2015, p. 23-32.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

HarvardHarvard

Rogers, R, Coid, JW, Yang, M, Ullrich, S, Zhang, T, Sizmur, S, Farrington, DP, Freestone, M & Rogers, RD 2015, 'Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?', International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 23-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2014.974085

APA

Rogers, R., Coid, J. W., Yang, M., Ullrich, S., Zhang, T., Sizmur, S., Farrington, D. P., Freestone, M., & Rogers, R. D. (2015). Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter? International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 14(1), 23-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2014.974085

CBE

Rogers R, Coid JW, Yang M, Ullrich S, Zhang T, Sizmur S, Farrington DP, Freestone M, Rogers RD. 2015. Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health. 14(1):23-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2014.974085

MLA

Rogers, R. et al. "Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?". International Journal of Forensic Mental Health. 2015, 14(1). 23-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2014.974085

VancouverVancouver

Rogers R, Coid JW, Yang M, Ullrich S, Zhang T, Sizmur S et al. Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter? International Journal of Forensic Mental Health. 2015 Mar 31;14(1):23-32. doi: 10.1080/14999013.2014.974085

Author

Rogers, R. ; Coid, J.W. ; Yang, M. et al. / Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?. In: International Journal of Forensic Mental Health. 2015 ; Vol. 14, No. 1. pp. 23-32.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?

AU - Rogers, R.

AU - Coid, J.W.

AU - Yang, M.

AU - Ullrich, S.

AU - Zhang, T.

AU - Sizmur, S.

AU - Farrington, D.P.

AU - Freestone, M.

AU - Rogers, R.D.

PY - 2015/3/31

Y1 - 2015/3/31

N2 - Accuracy of risk assessment instruments in predicting violence may appear poor if substantial numbers of study participants subsequently reoffend non-violently instead of violently as predicted. This study examined effects of changing the violent outcome on predictive accuracy of five instruments (OGRS, RM2000(V), VRAG, PCL-R, HCR20) for 1,353 male and 304 female released prisoners in England and Wales. Adding self-reported violence to criminal convictions resulted in a moderate increase in violent outcome among women, but was small among men. After removing offenders who subsequently reoffended non-violently, significant improvement in accuracy was found on all instruments for men, but not women. We concluded that risk assessment instruments for violence may be more accurate than previously described, but improvement can only be achieved with certain samples. Instruments relying heavily on previous criminal history for predictive power can demonstrate improved accuracy, but only after removing non-violent offenders from samples with extensive previous offending.

AB - Accuracy of risk assessment instruments in predicting violence may appear poor if substantial numbers of study participants subsequently reoffend non-violently instead of violently as predicted. This study examined effects of changing the violent outcome on predictive accuracy of five instruments (OGRS, RM2000(V), VRAG, PCL-R, HCR20) for 1,353 male and 304 female released prisoners in England and Wales. Adding self-reported violence to criminal convictions resulted in a moderate increase in violent outcome among women, but was small among men. After removing offenders who subsequently reoffended non-violently, significant improvement in accuracy was found on all instruments for men, but not women. We concluded that risk assessment instruments for violence may be more accurate than previously described, but improvement can only be achieved with certain samples. Instruments relying heavily on previous criminal history for predictive power can demonstrate improved accuracy, but only after removing non-violent offenders from samples with extensive previous offending.

U2 - 10.1080/14999013.2014.974085

DO - 10.1080/14999013.2014.974085

M3 - Article

VL - 14

SP - 23

EP - 32

JO - International Journal of Forensic Mental Health

JF - International Journal of Forensic Mental Health

SN - 1499-9013

IS - 1

ER -