Introduction HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are major
health concerns globally. This systematic review and meta-
analysis protocol study aims to estimate the incidence
of HIV and HCV among people who inject drugs (PWIDs)
by reviewing studies that have applied mathematical
modelling. The primary purpose of this systematic review
is to identify and review mathematical modelling studies of
HIV and HCV incidence in PWIDs.
Methods and analysis cohort, cross-sectional and clinical
trial studies conducted to estimate the incidence of
HIV and HCV based on mathematical models or have
evaluated the effectiveness of mathematical models will
be considered for inclusion in the review. A comprehensive
search applying a Cochrane approach will be used to
identify relevant primary studies, published between
January 2000 and July 2020, and indexed in PubMed,
EMBASE, Opengrey, WOS, SCOPUS and Cochrane Library
with no restriction on language. This protocol was prepared
according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic
Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P). Study
selection and data extraction will be performed by two
independent reviewers. Assessment of risk of bias will be
implemented using forms of the Critical Appraisal Skills
Programme. Publication bias will be assessed by funnel
plots, Begg’s and Egger’s tests. A meta-analysis will be
conducted to answer the first research question, ‘What is
the incidence of HIV and HCV when applying mathematical
model in PWID?’. Clinical heterogeneity will be assessed
by looking at the characteristics of participants, method
of diagnosis and case definitions in the included primary
studies. In addition, subgroup analyses will be conducted
for population and secondary outcomes.
Ethics and dissemination There are no ethical issues
related to this study. The findings will be published in peer-
reviewed scientific journals and presented at international
and national conferences.