Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change

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  • Martin T. Dokulil
    University of Innsbruck
  • Stephen C. Maberly
    Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster
  • Linda May
    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
  • Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer
    Uppsala University
  • R. Iestyn Woolway
  • Elvira de Eyto
    Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport
Annual maximum lake surface temperature influences ecosystem structure and function and, in particular, the rates of metabolic activities, species survival and biogeography. Here, we evaluated 50 years of observational data, from 1966 to 2015, for ten European lakes to quantify changes in the annual maximum surface temperature and the duration above a potentially critical temperature of 20 °C. Our results show that annual maximum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of +0.58 °C decade−1 (95% confidence interval 0.18), which is similar to the observed increase in annual maximum air temperature of +0.42 °C decade−1 (95% confidence interval 0.28) over the same period. Increments in lake maximum temperature among the ten lakes range from +0.1 in the west to +1.9 °C decade−1 in the east. Absolute maximum lake surface water temperatures were reached in Wörthersee, 27.5 °C, and Neusiedler See, 31.7 °C. Periods exceeding a critical temperature of 20 °C each year became two to six times longer than the respective average (6 to 93). The depth at which water temperature exceeded 20 °C increased from less than 1 to more than 6 m in Mondsee, Austria, over the 50 years studied. As a consequence, the habitable environment became increasingly restricted for many organisms that are adapted to historic conditions.

Keywords

  • Warming, Critical temperatures, Extremes, Trends, Europe
Original languageEnglish
JournalClimatic Change
Volume165
Issue number56
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 Apr 2021

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