Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

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  • Martin J. P. Sullivan
    University of Leeds
  • Simon L. Lewis
    University of Leeds
  • Kofi Affum-Baffoe
    Forestry Commission of Ghana
  • Carolina Castilho
    Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
  • Flávia Costa
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Aida Cuni Sanchez
    Colorado State University
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    DR Congo Programme
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    University of Leeds
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    UNEMAT - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
  • Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza
    Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru
  • Lan Qie
    University of Lincoln
  • Bonaventure Sonké
    University of Yaounde I
  • Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez
    Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru
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    University of Leeds
  • Roel J. W. Brienen
    University of Leeds
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    Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru
  • David Galbraith
    University of Leeds
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    University of Leeds
  • Yadvinder Malhi
    University of Oxford
  • Shin-Ichiro Aiba
    Hokkaido University
  • Miguel N. Alexiades
    University of Kent
  • Everton C. Almeida
    Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará
  • Edmar Almeida de Oliveira
    Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brazil
  • Esteban Álvarez Dávila
    National Open and Distance University, Bogotá
  • Patricia Alvarez Loayza
    Duke University
  • Ana Andrade
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Simone Aparecida Vieira
    Universidade Estadual de Campinas
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    University of Exeter
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    Universidad Autónoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Bolivia
  • Eric J. M. M. Arets
    Wageningen Environmental Research
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    Universidad Autónoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Bolivia
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    Harvard University
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    Herbario Universitario (PORT)
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    Universidade Federal do Amazonas
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    UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology
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    Florida International University
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    Universidade de São Paulo
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    Lancaster University
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    Universidade Federal do Acre
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    ETH Zürich
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    University of Leeds
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    Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren
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    Leeds University
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    University of Leeds
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    University of Oxford
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    Landscapes and Livelihoods Group
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    CIRAD
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    Ghent University
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    University of Liege
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    Institut national de la recherche agronomique
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    Wageningen University
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    CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra
  • Francis Q. Brearley
    Manchester Metropolitan University
  • Terry Brncic
    Wildlife Conservation Society, Brazzavile
  • Foster Brown
    Woods Hole Research Center
  • Benoit Burban
    Université des Antilles
  • José Luís Camargo
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Wendeson Castro
    Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Carlos Céron
    Universidad Central del Ecuador
  • Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro
    Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Victor Chama Moscoso
    Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru
  • Jerôme Chave
    CNRS, Toulouse, France.
  • Eric Chezeaux
    Rougier-Gabon, Libreville, Gabon.
  • Connie J. Clark
    Duke University
  • Fernanda Coelho de Souza
    University of Leeds
  • Murray Collins
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK.
  • James A. Comiskey
    National Park Service, Fredericksburg, VA, USA
  • Fernando Cornejo Valverde
    Proyecto Castaña, Made de Dios, Peru.
  • Massiel Corrales Medina
    Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa
  • Lola da Costa
    Universidade Federal do Para
  • Martin Dančák
    Palacký University Olomouc
  • Greta C. Dargie
    University of Leeds
  • Stuart Davies
    Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
  • Nallaret Davila Cardozo
    Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Peru.
  • Thales de Haulleville
    Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren
  • Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros
    Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
  • Jhon del Aguila Pasquel
    Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana
  • Géraldine Derroire
  • Anthony Di Fiore
    University of Texas, Austin
  • Jean-Louis Doucet
    University of Liege
  • Aurélie Dourdain
    Université des Antilles
  • Vincent Droissant
    Université de Montpellier
  • Luisa Fernanda Duque
    Fundacion con Vida, Medellín
  • Romeo Ekoungoulou
    Beijing Forestry University
  • Fernando Elias
    Universidade Federal do Para
  • Terry Erwin
    Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, USA.
  • Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert
    University of Birmingham
  • Sophie Fauset
    University of Plymouth
  • Joice Ferreira
    Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
  • Gerardo Flores Llampazo
    Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre de Grohmann (UNJBG)
  • Ernest Foli
    Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (CSIR-FORIG)
  • Andrew Ford
    CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra
  • Martin Gilpin
    University of Leeds
  • Jefferson S. Hall
    Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington DC
  • Keith C. Hamer
    University of Leeds
  • Alan C. Hamilton
  • David J. Harris
    Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
  • Terese B. Hart
    Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation, Kinshasa
  • Radim Hédl
    Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno
  • Bruno Herault
    Ghent University
  • Rafael Herrera
    Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (IVIC)
  • Niro Higuchi
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Annette Hladik
    Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris
  • Eurídice Honorio Coronado
    Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana
  • Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco
    Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Peru
  • Walter Huaraca Huasco
    Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Peru
  • Kathryn J. Jeffery
    University of Stirling
  • Eliana Jimenez-Rojas
    Universidad Nacional de Colombia
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    Leeds University
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    University of Kisangani
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    Ghent University
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    Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brazil
  • Lip Khoon Kho
  • Timothy Killeen
    Agteca, Santa Cruz, Bolivia
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    Kyoto University, Japan
  • Bente Klitgaard
    Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
  • Alexander Koch
    The University of Hong Kong
  • Nicolas Labrière
    CNRS, Toulouse, France.
  • William Laurance
    James Cook University
  • Susan Laurance
    James Cook University
  • Miguel E. Leal
    Uganda Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society, Kampala, Uganda.
  • Aurora Levesley
    University of Leeds
  • Adriano J. N. Lima
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Université de Kisangani Republic Congo
    University of Kisangani
  • Aline P. Lopes
    National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Paulo
  • Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez
    University of Leeds
  • Tom Lovejoy
    George Mason University, Fairfax
  • Jon C. Lovett
    University of Leeds
  • Richard Lowe
    University of Ibadan
  • William E. Magnusson
    Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
  • Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte
    University of the Azores
  • Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto
    Universidade Federale do Rondonia
  • Ben Hur Marimon
    Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brazil
  • Andrew R. Marshall
    University of York
  • Centre for Ecology Hydrology
    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford
  • Simone Matias de Almeida Reis
    Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brazil
  • Colin Maycock
    Universiti Malaysia Sabah
  • Karina Melgaço
    University of Leeds
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    Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Sacta
  • Faizah Metali
    Universiti Brunei Darussalam
  • Vianet Mihindou
    Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux, Libreville, Gabon.
  • William Milliken
    Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
  • Edward T. A. Mitchard
    University of Edinburgh
  • Paulo S. Morandi
    Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brazil
  • Hannah L. Mossman
    Manchester Metropolitan University
  • Laszlo Nagy
    Universide Estadual de Campinas
  • Henrique Nascimento
    Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
  • David Neill
    Universidad Estatal Amazónica, Ecuador
  • Reuben Nilus
    Sabah Forestry Department, Sepilok, Malaysia
  • Universidad Nacional de San Antonio del Cusco
    Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Peru
  • Walter Palacios
    Universidad Tecnica del Norte, Ecuador
  • Nadir Pallqui Camacho
    University of Leeds
  • Julie Peacock
    University of Leeds
  • Colin Pendry
    Royal Botanical Garden Edinburgh
  • Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora
    Universidad Regional Amazónica IKIAM, Tena, Ecuador
  • Georgia C. Pickavance
    University of Leeds
  • John Pipoly
    Parks and Recreation Division, Oakland Park, FL, USA
  • Nigel Pitman
    Field Museum, Chicago, IL, USA
  • Maureen Playfair
    Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS), Paramaribo
  • Lourens Poorter
    Wageningen University
  • John R. Poulsen
    Duke University
  • Axel Dalberg Poulsen
    University of Oslo
  • Richard Preziosi
    Manchester Metropolitan University
  • Adriana Prieto
    Universidad Nacional de Colombia
  • Richard B. Primack
    Boston University
  • Hirma Ramírez-Angulo
    Universidad de Los Andes, Mérida
  • Jan Reitsma
    Bureau Waardenburg, Culemborg
  • Maxime Réjou-Méchain
    Université de Montpellier
  • Zorayda Restrepo Correa
    Fundacion con Vida, Medellín
  • Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Lily Rodriguez Bayona
    Centro de Conservacion, Investigacion y Manejo de Areas Naturales
  • Anand Roopsind
    Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Georgetown, Guyana
  • Agustín Rudas
    Universidad Nacional de Colombia
  • Ervan Rutishauser
    Carboforexpert, Geneva, Switzerland
  • Kamariah Abu Salim
    Universiti Brunei Darussalam
  • Rafael P. Salomão
    Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia/CAPES, Belém
  • Juliana Schietti
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Douglas Sheil
    Norwegian University of Life Sciences
  • Richarlly C. Silva
    Instituto Federal do Acre,
  • Javier Silva Espejo
    Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Peru
  • Lancaster University
    Lancaster University
  • Marcos Silveira
    Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Murielle Simo-Droissart
    University of Yaounde I
  • Marcelo Fragomeni Simon
    Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
  • James Singh
    Guyana Forestry Commission
  • Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva
    Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru
  • Clement Stahl
    Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane
  • Juliana Stropp
    Federal University of Alagoas
  • Rahayu Sukri
    Universiti Brunei Darussalam
  • Terry Sunderland
    Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia
  • Martin Svátek
    Mendel University, Brno
  • Michael D. Swaine
    University of Aberdeen
  • Varun Swamy
    San Diego Zoo Global
  • Hermann Taedoumg
    University of Yaounde I
  • Joey Talbot
    Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Georgetown, Guyana
  • James Taplin
    Innovate UK
  • David Taylor
    National University of Singapore
  • Hans ter Steege
    Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden
  • John Terborgh
    Duke University
  • Raquel Thomas
    Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Georgetown, Guyana
  • Sean C. Thomas
    University of Toronto, Canada
  • Universidad de Andes
    Universidad de los Andes, Bogota
  • Peter Umunay
    Wildlife Conservation Society, New York
  • Luis Valenzuela Gamarra
    Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru
  • Geertje van der Heijden
    University of Nottingham
  • Peter van der Hout
    Van der Hout Forestry Consulting, Rotterdam
  • Peter van der Meer
    Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences
  • Hans Verbeeck
    Ghent University
  • Ronald Vernimmen
    Deltares
  • Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira
    Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém
  • Emilio Vilanova Torre
    University of Washington, Seattle
  • Jason Vleminckx
    Florida International University, Miami
  • Vincent Vos
    Centro de Investigación y Promoción del Campesinado, La Paz, Bolivia
  • Ophelia Wang
    Northern Arizona University
  • Lee J. T. White
    University of Stirling
  • Simon Willcock
  • John T. Woods
    University of Liberia, Monrovia, Liberia
  • Verginia Wortel
    Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS), Paramaribo
  • Kenneth Young
    University of Texas, Austin
  • Roderick Zagt
    Tropenbos International, Wageningen
  • Lise Zemagho
    University of Yaounde I
  • Pieter A. Zuidema
    Wageningen University
  • Joeri A. Zwerts
    Forest Management, Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS),
  • Oliver L. Phillips
    University of Leeds
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. While short-term drying and warming are known to impact forests it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here we analyse 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 Mg C ha-1 °C-1), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and with a greater rate of decline in the hottest forests (>32.2 °C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realise the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilising the Earth’s climate.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)869-874
JournalScience
Volume368
Issue number6493
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 May 2020

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