Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes

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  • Sapna Sharma
    York University
  • David C. Richardson
  • R. Iestyn Woolway
    European Space Agency Climate Office, ECSAT
  • M. Arshad Imrit
    York University
  • Damien Bouffard
    Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
  • Kevin Blagrave
    York University
  • Julia Daly
    University of Maine
  • Alessandro Filazzola
    York University
  • Nikolay Granin
    Russian Academy of Sciences
  • Johanna Korhonen
    Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki
  • John Magnuson
    University of Wisconsin-Madison
  • Wlodzimierz Marszelewski
    Nicolaus Copernicus University
  • Shin-Ichiro S. Matsuzaki
    National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
  • William Perry
  • Dale M. Robertson
    U.S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, Middleton
  • Lars G. Rudstam
    Cornell University
  • Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer
    Uppsala University
  • Huaxia Yao
    Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario
Long-term lake ice phenological records from around the Northern Hemisphere provide unique sensitive indicators of climatic variations, even prior to the existence of physical meteorological measurement stations. Here, we updated ice phenology records for 60 lakes with time-series ranging from 107–204 years to provide the first re-assessment of Northern Hemispheric ice trends since 2004 by adding 15 additional years of ice phenology records and 40 lakes to our study. We found that, on average, ice-on was 11.0 days later, ice-off was 6.8 days earlier, and ice duration was 17.0 days shorter per century over the entire record for each lake. Trends in ice-on and ice duration were six times faster in the last 25-year period (1992–2016) than previous quarter centuries. More extreme events in recent decades, including late ice-on, early ice-off, shorter periods of ice cover, or no ice cover at all, contribute to the increasing rate of lake ice loss. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit increases in air temperature and abate losses in lake ice cover that would subsequently limit ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic consequences, such as increased evaporation rates, warmer water temperatures, degraded water quality, and the formation of toxic algal blooms.

Keywords

  • lake ice, climate change, ice phenology, extreme events, winter limnology
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2021JG006348
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Volume126
Issue number10
Early online date20 Sept 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2021

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