Theresourcesrequiredtohaltbiodiversitydeclinesareestimatedtobemanytimesmorethancurrentinvestment,underpinningcallstoincreasefinancialsupportforconservation,andtodevelopmethodsforallocatingfundsmoreefficiently(McCarthyetal.,2012;McDonaldetal.,2015).Conservationtriageisanimportantpartofthelatterstrategy,withproponentsarguingthatbyexplicitlyprioritizingresourcestowardtargets(e.g.,particularspeciesorpopulations)identifiedasgeneratingthegreatestbenefitsforagiveninvestment,triageavoidsusingresourcesoncasesinwhichconservationeffortisunlikelytomakeadifference(i.e.,improvementisunlikelyorisnear-certainirrespectiveofinvestment;Bottrilletal.,2008;Schneideretal.,2010;Gerber,2016).However,triagehasbeencriticizedonseveralgrounds,suchaspotentiallysignalingtodecision-makersthatsomeextinctionsorpopulationlossesareacceptable,andthescientific,ethical,andpracticalargumentshavebeendebatedwithoutreachingclearconsensus(Bottrilletal.,2008;JachowskiandKesler,2008;Parretal.,2008).Ourprimaryaimhereisnottorevisitthesearguments,buttohighlightanadditionalissue—thepotentialforsubstantial,unforeseenchangesinthefuturecostsofconservation—andinvestigatehowthisissuemightaffecttriageandnon-triageapproaches.
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