TY - JOUR

T1 - Nonlinear responses in interannual variability of lake ice to climate change

AU - Richardson, David C.

AU - Filazzola, Alessandro

AU - Woolway, R. Iestyn

AU - Imrit, M. Arshad

AU - Bouffard, Damien

AU - Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

AU - Magnuson, John

AU - Sharma, Sapna

PY - 2024/4/1

Y1 - 2024/4/1

N2 - Abstract Climate change is contributing to rapid changes in lake ice cover across the Northern Hemisphere, thereby impacting local communities and ecosystems. Using lake ice cover time-series spanning over 87?yr for 43 lakes across the Northern Hemisphere, we found that the interannual variability in ice duration, measured as standard deviation, significantly increased in only half of our studied lakes. We observed that the interannual variability in ice duration peaked when lakes were, on average, covered by ice for about 1?month, while both longer and shorter long-term mean ice cover duration resulted in lower interannual variability in ice duration. These results demonstrate that the ice cover duration can become so short that the interannual variability rapidly declines. The interannual variability in ice duration showed a strong dependency on global temperature anomalies and teleconnections, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño?Southern Oscillation. We conclude that many lakes across the Northern Hemisphere will experience a decline in interannual ice cover variability and shift to open water during the winter under a continued global warming trend which will affect lake biological, cultural, and economic processes.

AB - Abstract Climate change is contributing to rapid changes in lake ice cover across the Northern Hemisphere, thereby impacting local communities and ecosystems. Using lake ice cover time-series spanning over 87?yr for 43 lakes across the Northern Hemisphere, we found that the interannual variability in ice duration, measured as standard deviation, significantly increased in only half of our studied lakes. We observed that the interannual variability in ice duration peaked when lakes were, on average, covered by ice for about 1?month, while both longer and shorter long-term mean ice cover duration resulted in lower interannual variability in ice duration. These results demonstrate that the ice cover duration can become so short that the interannual variability rapidly declines. The interannual variability in ice duration showed a strong dependency on global temperature anomalies and teleconnections, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño?Southern Oscillation. We conclude that many lakes across the Northern Hemisphere will experience a decline in interannual ice cover variability and shift to open water during the winter under a continued global warming trend which will affect lake biological, cultural, and economic processes.

U2 - 10.1002/lno.12527

DO - 10.1002/lno.12527

M3 - Article

VL - 69

SP - 789

EP - 801

JO - Limnology and Oceanography

JF - Limnology and Oceanography

SN - 0024-3590

IS - 4

ER -