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Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

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Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. / Kurganskiy, Alexander; Creer, Simon; De Vere, Natasha et al.
In: Science Advances, Vol. 7, No. 13, eabd7658, 26.03.2021.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

HarvardHarvard

Kurganskiy, A, Creer, S, De Vere, N, Griffith, GW, Osborne, NJ, Wheeler, BW, McInnes, RN, Clewlow, Y, Barber, A, Brennan, G, Hanlon, HM, Hegarty, MJ, Potter, C, Rowney, FM, Adams-Groom, B, Petch, GM, Pashley, CH, Satchwell, J, De Weger, LA, Rasmussen, K, Oliver, G, Sindt, C, Bruffaerts, N, The PollerGEN Consortium & Skjoth, CA 2021, 'Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe', Science Advances, vol. 7, no. 13, eabd7658. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

APA

Kurganskiy, A., Creer, S., De Vere, N., Griffith, G. W., Osborne, N. J., Wheeler, B. W., McInnes, R. N., Clewlow, Y., Barber, A., Brennan, G., Hanlon, H. M., Hegarty, M. J., Potter, C., Rowney, F. M., Adams-Groom, B., Petch, G. M., Pashley, C. H., Satchwell, J., De Weger, L. A., ... Skjoth, C. A. (2021). Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. Science Advances, 7(13), Article eabd7658. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

CBE

Kurganskiy A, Creer S, De Vere N, Griffith GW, Osborne NJ, Wheeler BW, McInnes RN, Clewlow Y, Barber A, Brennan G, et al. 2021. Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. Science Advances. 7(13):Article eabd7658. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

MLA

Kurganskiy, Alexander et al. "Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe". Science Advances. 2021. 7(13). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

VancouverVancouver

Kurganskiy A, Creer S, De Vere N, Griffith GW, Osborne NJ, Wheeler BW et al. Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. Science Advances. 2021 Mar 26;7(13):eabd7658. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

Author

Kurganskiy, Alexander ; Creer, Simon ; De Vere, Natasha et al. / Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. In: Science Advances. 2021 ; Vol. 7, No. 13.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

AU - Kurganskiy, Alexander

AU - Creer, Simon

AU - De Vere, Natasha

AU - Griffith, Gareth W.

AU - Osborne, Nicholas J.

AU - Wheeler, Benedict W.

AU - McInnes, Rachel N.

AU - Clewlow, Yolanda

AU - Barber, Adam

AU - Brennan, Georgina

AU - Hanlon, Helen M.

AU - Hegarty, Matthew J.

AU - Potter, Caitlin

AU - Rowney, Francis M.

AU - Adams-Groom, Beverley

AU - Petch, Geoff M.

AU - Pashley, Catherine H.

AU - Satchwell, Jack

AU - De Weger, Letty A.

AU - Rasmussen, Karen

AU - Oliver, Gilles

AU - Sindt, Charlotte

AU - Bruffaerts, Nicolas

AU - The PollerGEN Consortium, null

AU - Skjoth, Carsten A.

N1 - Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

PY - 2021/3/26

Y1 - 2021/3/26

N2 - Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

AB - Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

M3 - Article

C2 - 33771862

VL - 7

JO - Science Advances

JF - Science Advances

SN - 2375-2548

IS - 13

M1 - eabd7658

ER -