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Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events

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Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. / Nikolopoulos, K.; Litsa, A.; Petropoulos, F. et al.
In: Journal of Business Research, Vol. 68, No. 8, 29.03.2015, p. 1785-1791.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

HarvardHarvard

Nikolopoulos, K, Litsa, A, Petropoulos, F, Bougioukos, V & Khammash, M 2015, 'Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events', Journal of Business Research, vol. 68, no. 8, pp. 1785-1791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

APA

Nikolopoulos, K., Litsa, A., Petropoulos, F., Bougioukos, V., & Khammash, M. (2015). Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. Journal of Business Research, 68(8), 1785-1791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

CBE

Nikolopoulos K, Litsa A, Petropoulos F, Bougioukos V, Khammash M. 2015. Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. Journal of Business Research. 68(8):1785-1791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

MLA

Nikolopoulos, K. et al. "Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events". Journal of Business Research. 2015, 68(8). 1785-1791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

VancouverVancouver

Nikolopoulos K, Litsa A, Petropoulos F, Bougioukos V, Khammash M. Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. Journal of Business Research. 2015 Mar 29;68(8):1785-1791. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

Author

Nikolopoulos, K. ; Litsa, A. ; Petropoulos, F. et al. / Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. In: Journal of Business Research. 2015 ; Vol. 68, No. 8. pp. 1785-1791.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events

AU - Nikolopoulos, K.

AU - Litsa, A.

AU - Petropoulos, F.

AU - Bougioukos, V.

AU - Khammash, M.

PY - 2015/3/29

Y1 - 2015/3/29

N2 - Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics is challenging because of their nature and the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. This study evaluates the performances of structured analogies, the Delphi method and interaction groups in forecasting the impact of such events. The empirical evidence reveals that the use of structured analogies leads to an average forecasting accuracy improvement of 8.4% compared to unaided judgment. This improvement in accuracy is greater when the use of structured analogies is accompanied by an increase in the level of expertise, the use of more analogies, the relevance of these analogies, and the introduction of pooling analogies through interaction within experts. Furthermore, the results from group judgmental forecasting approaches were very promising; the Delphi method and interaction groups improved accuracy by 27.0% and 54.4%, respectively.

AB - Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics is challenging because of their nature and the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. This study evaluates the performances of structured analogies, the Delphi method and interaction groups in forecasting the impact of such events. The empirical evidence reveals that the use of structured analogies leads to an average forecasting accuracy improvement of 8.4% compared to unaided judgment. This improvement in accuracy is greater when the use of structured analogies is accompanied by an increase in the level of expertise, the use of more analogies, the relevance of these analogies, and the introduction of pooling analogies through interaction within experts. Furthermore, the results from group judgmental forecasting approaches were very promising; the Delphi method and interaction groups improved accuracy by 27.0% and 54.4%, respectively.

U2 - 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

DO - 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

M3 - Article

VL - 68

SP - 1785

EP - 1791

JO - Journal of Business Research

JF - Journal of Business Research

SN - 0148-2963

IS - 8

ER -