Surging compound drought–heatwaves underrated in global soils

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  • Xingwang Fan
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Yunlin Zhang
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Kun Shi
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Jian Peng
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig
  • Yongwei Liu
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Yongqiang Zhou
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Yuanbo Liu
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Qing Zhu
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Chunqiao Song
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Rongrong Wan
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • Xiaosong Zhao
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing
  • R. Iestyn Woolway
The past decade, particularly the last year, has seen unprecedented heat, threatening ecosystems sustained by soils. Evaluating the impact of droughts and heatwaves on global soils using meteorological variables such as precipitation and air temperature may be inadequate, given the significant differences between soil and air temperatures. We introduce the concept of soil compound drought?heatwaves (SCDHWs) to provide a more objective assessment of concurrent water and heat stresses in global soils. Our analysis reveals that the intensity and growth rate of global SCDHW events are substantially greater and accelerate more quickly than previously estimated from a meteorological perspective. We show that the Southern Hemisphere has been undergoing long-lasting SCDHWs, while northern high latitudes face more intensive SCDHWs. Compound drought?heatwaves (CDHWs) accelerate the warming and drying of soils, triggering soil compound drought?heatwaves (SCDHWs) that jeopardize the health of soil ecosystems. Nevertheless, the behavior of these events worldwide and their responses to climatic warming are underexplored. Here, we show a global escalation in the frequency, duration, peak intensity, and severity of SCDHWs, as well as an increase in affected land area, from 1980 to 2023. The increasing trends, which are particularly prominent since the early 2000 s, and projected to persist throughout this century, are dominated by summertime SCDHWs and enhanced by El Niño. Intensive soil warming as well as climatologically lower soil temperatures compared to air temperatures lead to localized hotspots of escalating SCDHW severity in northern high latitudes, while prolonged duration causes such hotspots in northern South America. Transformation of natural ecosystems, particularly forests and wetlands, to cropland as well as forest degradation substantially enhance the strength of SCDHWs. Global SCDHWs consistently exhibit higher frequencies, longer durations, greater severities, and faster growth rates than CDHWs in all aspects from 1980 to 2023. They are undergoing a critical transition, with droughts replacing heatwaves as the primary constraint. We emphasize the significant intensification of SCDHWs in northern high latitudes as well as the prolonged duration of SCDHWs in the Southern Hemisphere, posing an underrated threat to achieving carbon neutrality and food security goals.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e2410294121
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume121
Issue number42
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Oct 2024
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