A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

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  • Malgorzata Golub
    Uppsala University
  • Wim Thiery
    Vrije Universiteit Brussels
  • Rafael Marce
    Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona
  • Don Pierson
    Uppsala University
  • Inne Vanderkelen
    Vrije Universiteit Brussels
  • Daniel Mercado-Bettin
    Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona
  • R. Iestyn Woolway
    University of Reading
  • Luke Grant
    Vrije Universiteit Brussels
  • Eleanor Jennings
    Dundalk Institute of Technology
  • Benjamin M. Kraemer
    University of Konstanz
  • Jacob Schewe
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Fang Zhao
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Katja Frieler
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Matthias Mengel
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov
    Russian Academy of Sciences
  • Damien Bouffard
    Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
  • Marianne Cote
    Universite Laval
  • Raoul-Marie Couture
    Universite Laval
  • Andrey, V Debolskiy
    Lomonosov Moscow State University
  • Bram Droppers
    Wageningen University
  • Gideon Gal
    Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research
  • Mingyang Guo
    Purdue University
  • Annette B. G. Janssen
    Wageningen University
  • Georgiy Kirillin
    Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
  • Robert Ladwig
    University of Wisconsin-Madison
  • Madeline Magee
    Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison
  • Tadhg Moore
    Dundalk Institute of Technology
  • Marjorie Perroud
    Virginia Tech, Blacksburg
  • Sebastiano Piccolroaz
    University of Trento, Italy
  • Love Raaman Vinnaa
    Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
  • Martin Schmid
    Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
  • Tom Shatwell
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Magdeburg, Germany
  • Victor M. Stepanenko
    Lomonosov Moscow State University
  • Zeli Tan
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • Bronwyn Woodward
    University of Western Australia
  • Huaxia Yao
    Ontario Ministry of the Environment Conservation and Parks
  • Rita Adrian
    Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
  • Mathew Allan
    Waikato Regional Council
  • Orlane Anneville
    INRAE (The French National Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment)
  • Lauri Arvola
    University of Helsinki
  • Karen Atkins
    University of California, Davis
  • Leon Boegman
    Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada
  • Cayelan Carey
    Virginia Tech, Blacksburg
  • Kyle Christianson
    University of Colorado
  • Elvira de Eyto
    Estonian University of Life Sciences
  • Curtis DeGasperi
    King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks, Seattle
  • Maria Grechushnikova
    Lomonosov Moscow State University
  • Josef Hejzlar
    Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences
  • Klaus Joehnk
    CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra
  • Ian D. Jones
    University of Stirling
  • Alo Laas
    Estonian University of Life Sciences
  • Eleanor B. Mackay
    Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster
  • Ivan Mammarella
    University of Helsinki
  • Hampus Markensten
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
  • Chris McBride
    University of Waikato
  • Deniz Ozkundakci
    University of Waikato
  • Miguel Potes
    Universidade de Évora, Portugal
  • Karsten Rinke
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Magdeburg, Germany
  • Dale Robertson
    Upper Midwest Water Science Center, Madison
  • James A. Rusak
    Ontario Ministry of the Environment Conservation and Parks
  • Rui Salgado
    Universidade de Évora, Portugal
  • Leon van der Linden
    South Australian Water Corporation, Adelaide
  • Piet Verburg
    National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand
  • Danielle Wain
    7 Lakes Alliance, Maine, USA
  • Nicole K. Ward
    Virginia Tech, Blacksburg
  • Sabine Wollrab
    Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
  • Galina Zdorovennova
    Northern water problems Institute Karelian Research Centre of RAS, Petrozavodsk, Russia
Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Tudalennau (o-i)4597-4623
CyfnodolynGeoscientific Model Development
Cyfrol15
Rhif y cyfnodolyn11
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - 16 Meh 2022
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