TY - JOUR

T1 - A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

AU - Golub, Malgorzata

AU - Thiery, Wim

AU - Marce, Rafael

AU - Pierson, Don

AU - Vanderkelen, Inne

AU - Mercado-Bettin, Daniel

AU - Woolway, R. Iestyn

AU - Grant, Luke

AU - Jennings, Eleanor

AU - Kraemer, Benjamin M.

AU - Schewe, Jacob

AU - Zhao, Fang

AU - Frieler, Katja

AU - Mengel, Matthias

AU - Bogomolov, Vasiliy Y.

AU - Bouffard, Damien

AU - Cote, Marianne

AU - Couture, Raoul-Marie

AU - Debolskiy, Andrey, V

AU - Droppers, Bram

AU - Gal, Gideon

AU - Guo, Mingyang

AU - Janssen, Annette B. G.

AU - Kirillin, Georgiy

AU - Ladwig, Robert

AU - Magee, Madeline

AU - Moore, Tadhg

AU - Perroud, Marjorie

AU - Piccolroaz, Sebastiano

AU - Vinnaa, Love Raaman

AU - Schmid, Martin

AU - Shatwell, Tom

AU - Stepanenko, Victor M.

AU - Tan, Zeli

AU - Woodward, Bronwyn

AU - Yao, Huaxia

AU - Adrian, Rita

AU - Allan, Mathew

AU - Anneville, Orlane

AU - Arvola, Lauri

AU - Atkins, Karen

AU - Boegman, Leon

AU - Carey, Cayelan

AU - Christianson, Kyle

AU - de Eyto, Elvira

AU - DeGasperi, Curtis

AU - Grechushnikova, Maria

AU - Hejzlar, Josef

AU - Joehnk, Klaus

AU - Jones, Ian D.

AU - Laas, Alo

AU - Mackay, Eleanor B.

AU - Mammarella, Ivan

AU - Markensten, Hampus

AU - McBride, Chris

AU - Ozkundakci, Deniz

AU - Potes, Miguel

AU - Rinke, Karsten

AU - Robertson, Dale

AU - Rusak, James A.

AU - Salgado, Rui

AU - van der Linden, Leon

AU - Verburg, Piet

AU - Wain, Danielle

AU - Ward, Nicole K.

AU - Wollrab, Sabine

AU - Zdorovennova, Galina

PY - 2022/6/16

Y1 - 2022/6/16

N2 - Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

AB - Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

U2 - 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022

DO - 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022

M3 - Article

VL - 15

SP - 4597

EP - 4623

JO - Geoscientific Model Development

JF - Geoscientific Model Development

SN - 1991-959X

IS - 11

ER -