Another look at estimators for intermittent demand
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Dogfennau
- 2016 Another look at estimators
Llawysgrif awdur wedi’i dderbyn, 281 KB, dogfen-PDF
Trwydded: CC BY-NC-ND Dangos trwydded
- 2016 Another look at estimators for intermittent demand
Fersiwn derfynol wedi’i chyhoeddi, 640 KB, dogfen-PDF
Trwydded: CC BY Dangos trwydded
Dangosydd eitem ddigidol (DOI)
In this paper we focus on forecasting for intermittent demand data. We propose a new aggregation framework for intermittent demand forecasting that performs aggregation over the demand volumes, in contrast to the standard framework that employs temporal (over time) aggregation. To achieve this we construct a transformed time series, the inverse intermittent demand series. The
new algorithm is expected to work best on erratic and lumpy demand, as a result of the variance reduction of the non-zero demands. The improvement in forecasting performance is empirically demonstrated through an extensive evaluation in more than 8,000 time series of two well-researched spare parts data sets from the automotive and defence sectors. Furthermore, a simulation is performed so as to provide a stock-control evaluation. The proposed framework could nd popularity among practitioners given its suitability when dealing with clump sizes. As such it could be used in conjunction with existing popular forecasting methods for intermittent demand as an exception handling mechanism when certain types of demand are observed.
new algorithm is expected to work best on erratic and lumpy demand, as a result of the variance reduction of the non-zero demands. The improvement in forecasting performance is empirically demonstrated through an extensive evaluation in more than 8,000 time series of two well-researched spare parts data sets from the automotive and defence sectors. Furthermore, a simulation is performed so as to provide a stock-control evaluation. The proposed framework could nd popularity among practitioners given its suitability when dealing with clump sizes. As such it could be used in conjunction with existing popular forecasting methods for intermittent demand as an exception handling mechanism when certain types of demand are observed.
Iaith wreiddiol | Saesneg |
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Tudalennau (o-i) | 154-161 |
Cyfnodolyn | International Journal of Production Economics |
Cyfrol | 181 |
Rhif y cyfnodolyn | Part A |
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar | 21 Ebr 2016 |
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs) | |
Statws | Cyhoeddwyd - 1 Tach 2016 |
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