TY - JOUR

T1 - Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways.

AU - Forster, Eilidh

AU - Healey, John

AU - Dymond, Caren

AU - Styles, David

PY - 2021/6/22

Y1 - 2021/6/22

N2 - Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial forestry is disputed. Here, we calculate the potential GHG mitigation of a UK national planting strategy of 30,000 ha yr -1 from 2020 to 2050, using dynamic life cycle assessment. What-if scenarios vary: conifer-broadleaf composition, harvesting, product breakouts, and decarbonisation of substituted energy and materials, to estimate 100-year GHG mitigation. Here we find forest growth rate is the most important determinant of cumulative mitigation by 2120, irrespective of whether trees are harvested. A national planting strategy of commercial forest could mitigate 1.64 Pg CO 2e by 2120 (cumulative), compared with 0.54-1.72 Pg CO 2e for planting only conservation forests, depending on species composition. Even after heavy discounting of future product substitution credits based on industrial decarbonisation projections, GHG mitigation from harvested stands typically surpasses unharvested stands. Commercial afforestation can deliver effective GHG mitigation that is robust to future decarbonisation pathways and wood uses.

AB - Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial forestry is disputed. Here, we calculate the potential GHG mitigation of a UK national planting strategy of 30,000 ha yr -1 from 2020 to 2050, using dynamic life cycle assessment. What-if scenarios vary: conifer-broadleaf composition, harvesting, product breakouts, and decarbonisation of substituted energy and materials, to estimate 100-year GHG mitigation. Here we find forest growth rate is the most important determinant of cumulative mitigation by 2120, irrespective of whether trees are harvested. A national planting strategy of commercial forest could mitigate 1.64 Pg CO 2e by 2120 (cumulative), compared with 0.54-1.72 Pg CO 2e for planting only conservation forests, depending on species composition. Even after heavy discounting of future product substitution credits based on industrial decarbonisation projections, GHG mitigation from harvested stands typically surpasses unharvested stands. Commercial afforestation can deliver effective GHG mitigation that is robust to future decarbonisation pathways and wood uses.

UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24084-x

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-24084-x

DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-24084-x

M3 - Article

C2 - 34158494

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 1

M1 - 3831

ER -