TY - JOUR

T1 - Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal

AU - Cordes, Line

AU - Blumstein, Daniel

AU - Armitage, Kenneth

AU - CaraDonna, Paul

AU - Childs, Dylan

AU - Gerber, Brian

AU - Martin, Julien

AU - Oli, Madan

AU - Ozgul, Arpat

PY - 2020/7/28

Y1 - 2020/7/28

N2 - Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

AB - Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

UR - https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1918584117/-/DCSupplemental

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1918584117

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1918584117

M3 - Article

C2 - 32631981

VL - 117

SP - 18119

EP - 18126

JO - PNAS

JF - PNAS

SN - 0027-8424

IS - 30

ER -