TY - GEN

T1 - Hurricane disturbance accelerated the thermophilization of a Jamaican montane forest

AU - Tanner, Edmund V. J.

AU - Bellingham, Peter J

AU - Healey, John

AU - Feeley, Kenneth J

N1 - 27-Apr-2022 Dear Dr. Tanner: It is a pleasure to accept your manuscript entitled "Hurricane disturbance accelerated the thermophilization of a Jamaican montane forest" in its current form for publication in Ecography. Sincerely, Prof. Miguel Araújo Editor-in-Chief, Ecography

PY - 2022/9/1

Y1 - 2022/9/1

N2 - Thermophilization – changes in community composition towards greater relative abundances of species associated with warmer environments – has been described for plants and animals in many locations around the world. Disturbances of various kinds have increased rates of thermophilization in temperate sites, and this has been proposed, but not demonstrated, for some tropical environments. In this study, we tested whether disturbance by a Category four hurricane in 1988 (Hurricane Gilbert) increased thermophilization in a Jamaican montane forest by using pre- and post-hurricane data collected over four decades (1974–2014). We analysed tree species composition in permanent plots at c. 1580 m elevation in Jamaica’s Blue Mountains. There were 66 tree species with stem diameters ≥3 cm at breast height. We used published data on the altitudinal distribution of 62 species (94% of genetic individuals (genets)) to calculate the mean community altitude scores (MCAS) of the trees recorded in each census, as well as the MCAS of the survivors, recruits and dead trees after each decade. We found that thermophilization did occur (i.e., MCAS decreased significantly over time), and that this was due both to a decreasing MCAS of recruits through the four decades (significantly lower than expected in the last three decades) as well as a high MCAS of trees that died. Thermophilization was fastest in the post-hurricane decade, during which time there was marked and significant increase in the MCAS of dead trees; this change was above and beyond expectations of long-term successional dynamics. The rate of compositional change equates to an overall decrease in MCAS of 1.6 m yr-1 over the forty-year study period. We conclude that this Jamaican montane forest is undergoing thermophilization (likely due to rising temperature) and that the hurricane-caused disturbance accelerated thermophilization through differential mortality.

AB - Thermophilization – changes in community composition towards greater relative abundances of species associated with warmer environments – has been described for plants and animals in many locations around the world. Disturbances of various kinds have increased rates of thermophilization in temperate sites, and this has been proposed, but not demonstrated, for some tropical environments. In this study, we tested whether disturbance by a Category four hurricane in 1988 (Hurricane Gilbert) increased thermophilization in a Jamaican montane forest by using pre- and post-hurricane data collected over four decades (1974–2014). We analysed tree species composition in permanent plots at c. 1580 m elevation in Jamaica’s Blue Mountains. There were 66 tree species with stem diameters ≥3 cm at breast height. We used published data on the altitudinal distribution of 62 species (94% of genetic individuals (genets)) to calculate the mean community altitude scores (MCAS) of the trees recorded in each census, as well as the MCAS of the survivors, recruits and dead trees after each decade. We found that thermophilization did occur (i.e., MCAS decreased significantly over time), and that this was due both to a decreasing MCAS of recruits through the four decades (significantly lower than expected in the last three decades) as well as a high MCAS of trees that died. Thermophilization was fastest in the post-hurricane decade, during which time there was marked and significant increase in the MCAS of dead trees; this change was above and beyond expectations of long-term successional dynamics. The rate of compositional change equates to an overall decrease in MCAS of 1.6 m yr-1 over the forty-year study period. We conclude that this Jamaican montane forest is undergoing thermophilization (likely due to rising temperature) and that the hurricane-caused disturbance accelerated thermophilization through differential mortality.

U2 - 10.1111/ecog.06100

DO - 10.1111/ecog.06100

M3 - Article

VL - 2022

JO - Ecography

JF - Ecography

SN - 1600-0587

ER -