Consequential life cycle assessment was applied to forestry systems to evaluate the environmental balance of expanding forestry onto marginal agricultural land to supply more timber for the built environment, accounting for land use effects and product substitution. Forestry expansion to supply timber buildings could mitigate UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2.4 Gg CO₂ eq. per ha of forest over 100 years, though net mitigation could be halved if beef production were displaced to Brazil. Forest thinning increases wood yields and percentage conversion of harvested wood to construction sawnwood, resulting in 5% greater net GHG mitigation compared with unthinned systems. Optimising the environmental sustainability of construction timber value chains in a circular, bio-based economy will require holistic accounting of land use (change), forestry management and complex flows of wood.