TY - JOUR

T1 - Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients

AU - Burrows, Michael T.

AU - Bates, Amande E.

AU - Costello, Mark J.

AU - Edwards, Martin

AU - Edgar, Graham J.

AU - Fox, Clive J.

AU - Halpern, B.S.

AU - Hiddink, Jan Geert

AU - Pinsky, M.L.

AU - Batt, Ryan D.

AU - Molinos, J.G.

AU - Payne, Ben

AU - Schoeman, David

AU - Stuart-Smith, Rick D.

AU - Poloczanska, E.S.

PY - 2019/11/25

Y1 - 2019/11/25

N2 - As ocean temperatures rise, species distributions are tracking towards historically cooler regions in line with their thermal affinity1,2. However, warming, different species responses and presence of other species means predicting biodiversity redistribution and relative abundance remains a challenge 3,4. Here we use three decades of fish and plankton survey data to assess how warming changes the relative dominance of warm-affinity and cold-affinity species5,6. Regions with stable temperatures show little change in dominance structure (Northeast Pacific, Gulf of Mexico), while warming sees strong shifts towards warm-water species dominance (North Atlantic). Importantly, communities whose species pools had diverse thermal affinities and narrower range of thermal tolerance show greater sensitivity, as anticipated from simulations. Composition of fish communities changed less than expected in regions with strong temperature depth gradients. There, species track temperatures by moving deeper2,7, rather than horizontally, analogous to elevation shifts in land plants8. Temperature thus emerges as a fundamental driver for change in marine systems, with predictable restructuring of communities in the most rapidly warming areas using metrics based on species thermal affinities derived for diverse taxa. The emerging relationships provide a metric for assessment of biodiversity model predictions. The ready and predictable dominance shifts suggests a strong prognosis of resilience to climate change for these communities.

AB - As ocean temperatures rise, species distributions are tracking towards historically cooler regions in line with their thermal affinity1,2. However, warming, different species responses and presence of other species means predicting biodiversity redistribution and relative abundance remains a challenge 3,4. Here we use three decades of fish and plankton survey data to assess how warming changes the relative dominance of warm-affinity and cold-affinity species5,6. Regions with stable temperatures show little change in dominance structure (Northeast Pacific, Gulf of Mexico), while warming sees strong shifts towards warm-water species dominance (North Atlantic). Importantly, communities whose species pools had diverse thermal affinities and narrower range of thermal tolerance show greater sensitivity, as anticipated from simulations. Composition of fish communities changed less than expected in regions with strong temperature depth gradients. There, species track temperatures by moving deeper2,7, rather than horizontally, analogous to elevation shifts in land plants8. Temperature thus emerges as a fundamental driver for change in marine systems, with predictable restructuring of communities in the most rapidly warming areas using metrics based on species thermal affinities derived for diverse taxa. The emerging relationships provide a metric for assessment of biodiversity model predictions. The ready and predictable dominance shifts suggests a strong prognosis of resilience to climate change for these communities.

UR - https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-019-0631-5/MediaObjects/41558_2019_631_MOESM1_ESM.pdf

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-019-0631-5

DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0631-5

M3 - Letter

VL - 9

SP - 959

EP - 963

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

IS - 12

ER -