TY - JOUR

T1 - Old-growth forest loss and secondary forest recovery across Amazonian countries

AU - Smith, Charlotte

AU - Healey, John

AU - Berenguer, Erika

AU - Young, Paul

AU - Ben, Taylor

AU - Elias, Fernando

AU - Espirito-Santo, Fernando

AU - Barlow, Jos

N1 - Please don't make the attached accepted version publicly available until the journal publishes it. It should be quite soon. I 'll let you know as soon as I am informed. This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Grant Number NE/L002604/1), with Charlotte C Smith's studentship through the Envision Doctoral Training Partnership. Envision DTP is a consortium consisting of Bangor University, British Geological Survey, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster University, Rothamsted Research and the University of Nottingham.

PY - 2021/8/4

Y1 - 2021/8/4

N2 - There is growing recognition of the potential of large-scale forest restoration in the Amazon as a “nature-based solution” to climate change. However, our knowledge of forest loss and recovery beyond Brazil is limited, and carbon emissions and accumulation have not been estimated for the whole biome. Combining a 33-year land cover dataset with estimates of above-ground biomass and carbon sequestration rates, we evaluate forest loss and recovery across nine Amazonian countries and at a local scale. We also estimate the role of secondary forests in offsetting old-growth deforestation emissions and explore the temporal trends in forest loss and recovery. We find secondary forests across the biome to have offset just 9.7% of carbon emissions from old-growth deforestation, despite occupying 27.6% of deforested land. However, these numbers varied between countries ranging from 9.0% in Brazil to 23.8% in Guyana for carbon offsetting, and 24.8% in Brazil to 56.9% in Ecuador for forest area recovery. We reveal a strong, negative spatial relationship between old-growth forest loss and recovery by secondary forests, showing that regions with the greatest potential for large-scale restoration are also those that currently have the lowest recovery (e.g. Brazil dominates deforestation and emissions but has the lowest recovery). In addition, a temporal analysis of the regions that were >80% deforested in 1997 shows a continued decline in overall forest cover. Our findings identify three important challenges: (1) incentivising large-scale restoration in highly deforested regions, (2) protecting secondary forests without disadvantaging landowners who depend on farm-fallow systems, and (3) preventing further deforestation. Combatting all these successfully is essential to ensuring that the Amazon biome achieves its potential in mitigating anthropogenic climate change.

AB - There is growing recognition of the potential of large-scale forest restoration in the Amazon as a “nature-based solution” to climate change. However, our knowledge of forest loss and recovery beyond Brazil is limited, and carbon emissions and accumulation have not been estimated for the whole biome. Combining a 33-year land cover dataset with estimates of above-ground biomass and carbon sequestration rates, we evaluate forest loss and recovery across nine Amazonian countries and at a local scale. We also estimate the role of secondary forests in offsetting old-growth deforestation emissions and explore the temporal trends in forest loss and recovery. We find secondary forests across the biome to have offset just 9.7% of carbon emissions from old-growth deforestation, despite occupying 27.6% of deforested land. However, these numbers varied between countries ranging from 9.0% in Brazil to 23.8% in Guyana for carbon offsetting, and 24.8% in Brazil to 56.9% in Ecuador for forest area recovery. We reveal a strong, negative spatial relationship between old-growth forest loss and recovery by secondary forests, showing that regions with the greatest potential for large-scale restoration are also those that currently have the lowest recovery (e.g. Brazil dominates deforestation and emissions but has the lowest recovery). In addition, a temporal analysis of the regions that were >80% deforested in 1997 shows a continued decline in overall forest cover. Our findings identify three important challenges: (1) incentivising large-scale restoration in highly deforested regions, (2) protecting secondary forests without disadvantaging landowners who depend on farm-fallow systems, and (3) preventing further deforestation. Combatting all these successfully is essential to ensuring that the Amazon biome achieves its potential in mitigating anthropogenic climate change.

KW - carbon sequestration

KW - climate change

KW - forest regeneration

KW - human-modified landscapes

KW - restoration

KW - secondary vegetation

KW - tropical forest

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1701

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1701

M3 - Letter

VL - 16

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 8

M1 - 085009

ER -